“follow the science.” A 2020 Defense Department sponsored Harvard University study determined that “flying may be safer than eating in a
In the wake of an outbreak of coronavirus that began in China in 2019, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health experts have been speaking to a variety of media outlets and writing articles about the pandemic. We’ll be updating this article on a regular basis. Here’s a selection of stories from December 2020 in which they offer comments and context:
December 31: Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access (Los Angeles Times)
Lower-than-expected percentages of health care workers have been opting to take the coronavirus vaccine, raising concerns among epidemiologists. If too few people are vaccinated, the pandemic could stretch on indefinitely, they say. “Our ability as a society to get back to a higher level of functioning depends on having as many people protected as possible,” said Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics.
December 31: What To Know About The Coronavirus Variant From The U.K. (WBUR)
With a highly contagious variant of the coronavirus likely spreading in the U.S., William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, said, “I think that we need to redouble our efforts restricting the transmission of the virus.” He added, “There’s good reason to be optimistic about the efficacy of the vaccines against the variant.”
December 31: What We Learned About COVID-19 In 2020 (WBUR)
Discussing the future of pandemic strategy, Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, said that “we should have a strategy and a plan for any kind of pandemic that can come about, so that should we find ourselves in a position again with a president like the one we currently have, we don’t have to rely on the current administration to come up with a whole new plan.” He also stressed the importance of having testing capacity in place ahead of time. “We should be treating this like a Department of Defense project,” he said. “We should just have bunkers of laboratories. We should have factories that could make these [tests] in the millions and flip those switches within weeks.” William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, said that we need to “learn from mistakes, because we have made a lot of mistakes,” and called for a global effort at pandemic preparedness.
December 30: Yes, the new variant of coronavirus is alarming. But kids should stay in school. (Washington Post)
In this op-ed, Joseph Allen, associate professor of exposure assessment science, argued that in spite of a new highly contagious variant of coronavirus, children should still go to in-person school. He noted that children are much less likely to get sick from COVID-19 than adults, and that known strategies—masks, hand-washing, and enhanced ventilation and filtration—can limit viral spread in schools.
December 30: The Virus Mutates and the Balance of Power Changes (Follow the Science)
In this podcast, William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, talked with host Faye Flam about scientific detective work that tells where the new mutant variants of the coronavirus are coming from, where they’re going, and what they mean for humans.
December 30: Discovery of Virus Variant in Colorado and California Alarms Scientists (New York Times)
Experts say that the presence of a highly contagious coronavirus variant in the U.S. will affect virtually every aspect of the response, including hospital treatment, community lockdowns, and school closures. “The overall picture is pretty grim,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology. He added, “This variant was not stopped by the stronger interventions that were put in place in the U.K. in November. And that means that we need more.”
December 30: Colorado may have a second case of the more contagious virus variant (New York Times)
After a suspected second case of a highly contagious coronavirus variant was found in Colorado, William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, said, “There’s no reason to that that that community is particularly special in any way. It’s completely reasonable to think it’s in a lot of other places, but we just haven’t looked for it yet.”
December 30: 2nd dose of COVID-19 vaccine important step in return to normalcy (Wink News)
Experts say that even after a second dose of the coronavirus vaccine, people shouldn’t expect an immediate return to normalcy. Said research fellow Stephen Kissler, “It takes on the order of a week or two before your body can mount that immune response that makes it a little safer to see others.”
December 30: Shots are slow to reach arms as Trump administration leaves final steps of mass vaccination to beleaguered states (Washington Post)
The U.S. coronavirus vaccination campaign has gotten off to a slow start, sometimes marked by chaos and confusion. One problem is that vaccine distribution has been left to hollowed-out county and municipal health departments and hospital systems dealing with a surge of COVID-19 patients. “The most ambitious vaccination effort in modern history involves delivering millions of doses to millions of people in a timely fashion,” said Howard Koh, Harvey V. Fineberg Professor of the Practice of Public Health Leadership and an assistant health secretary in the Obama administration. “It requires a one-government approach more than ever before, especially when that government is in the midst of a transition.”
December 30: Highly contagious new virus strain increases pressure to speed up the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations (Boston Globe)
The discovery of a more contagious strain of the coronavirus in the U.S. heightens the urgency of ramping up the nation’s vaccine rollout, say experts. William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, noted that a dearth of genomic tracking may have left the mutant strain invisible in most of the country. “If it’s more transmissible, we need to deny it the opportunity to transmit and make things so much worse than they are,” he said.
December 29: Pandemic Regrets? Experts Have a Few (Bloomberg)
In U.S. efforts to contain COVID-19, lockdowns have been too blunt and testing has been too slow, say experts. Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, said of testing in the U.S., “We’re getting almost no effectiveness from a public health standpoint. Our contact tracing and testing program is failing before our eyes.” Mina has been advocating for regular testing with easy, rapid tests.
December 29: First U.S. Case of Highly Contagious Coronavirus Variant Is Found in Colorado (New York Times)
Although the first case of a highly transmissible variant of the coronavirus was discovered on December 29 in the U.S., experts say it may have been circulating for a while. William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, said that the newly reported case “should not be cause for panic” but added that “it is cause to redouble our efforts at preventing the virus from getting the opportunity to spread.”
December 29: You’re Infected With the Coronavirus. But How Infected? (New York Times)
Knowing a COVID-19 patient’s viral load may help predict how sick someone might get, according to research. This month, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suggested that clinical labs report not just whether a person is infected, but how much virus is in their body. Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, called the FDA’s move “very important,” adding, “I think it’s a step in the right direction to making the most use of one of the only pieces of data we have for many positive individuals.” James Hay, postdoctoral researcher, said that an uptick in the average viral load throughout communities could indicate an epidemic on the rise. “We can get an idea of whether the epidemic is growing or declining, without relying on case counts,” he said.
December 28: How to bring USA back to health in 2021 (CNN)
Howard Koh, Harvey V. Fineberg Professor of the Practice of Public Health Leadership, co-authored this opinion piece calling for more recognition, support, and resources for overstretched public health professionals as they help orchestrate COVID-19 vaccination efforts.
December 28: Fueled by a History of Mistreatment, Black Americans Distrust the New COVID-19 Vaccines (Time)
Vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans is fueled by a long history of systemic racism and fears about safety due to the speed of vaccine development, experts say. Jarvis Chen, lecturer on social and behavioral sciences, noted that issues with distributing the vaccine and who should get it first “are really controversial and contentious. There has been some…debate on whether we should be targeting vaccines by race/ethnicity. On one hand, communities of color have been disproportionately affected. On the other hand, there’s a lot of discomfort and a lack of trust.”
December 28: Number of Americans Willing to Get COVID-19 Vaccine Continues to Rise (HealthDay)
William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, said that a more infectious variant of the coronavirus that is currently circulating is unlikely to undermine the U.S. vaccination campaign. “The vaccine is a pretty thorough thing,” he said. “Whether or not the existing vaccines are less effective against B.1.1.7 [the variant] is at the moment not known. I think there is good reason to think they will not be severely impacted.”
December 28: Explainer: What will Covid-19 vaccines achieve? And how much of the population needs to be vaccinated? (South China Morning Post)
Experts say it won’t be known what level of herd immunity will be necessary to stop the spread of the coronavirus until it becomes clear how effective vaccination is at stopping transmission. Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, and William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, were quoted.
December 27: How To Stop The Pandemic (The Dive)
On this podcast, Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, discussed his strategy to stop the pandemic by using easy-to-produce, easy-to-use, inexpensive, and rapid paper strip tests.
December 26: Possibility of one-dose vaccine raises hopes for faster rollout (The Hill)
Using a single dose of the currently available coronavirus vaccines would be somewhat less protective than two doses but could still save lives, some experts think. Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, has called for new trials to study how protective one dose would be. “Even if it’s slightly inferior, from a public health perspective it might be superior,” he said, because if it could be used on twice as many people it would help reduce the spread of the virus more quickly.
December 26: Why two doses of the new COVID-19 vaccines are better than one (Popular Science)
Some experts think that one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccines may be nearly as effective as the recommended two doses, and have suggested offering people one dose in order to make the limited supply of vaccines go further. But others are wary of this idea because of the lack of hard evidence. “We don’t know anything about how long or how strong the immune response would be from a single [Pfizer or Moderna] vaccine,” said Barry Bloom, Joan L. and Julius H. Jacobson Research Professor of Public Health. William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, recommended gathering evidence from a clinical trial before making any dose changes.
December 24: How Worried Should We Be About The New U.K. Coronavirus Variant? (NPR)
Scientists estimate that new coronavirus variant circulating in England may be roughly 50% more transmissible than other strains. Policymakers should take the new variant seriously because if it is indeed 50% more transmissible, it will be difficult to stop its spread, said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology.
December 24: How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough? (New York Times)
Although experts initially estimated that 60%–70% of the population would need to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to stop its spread, they’re now shifting their estimate to 85% or even higher, although they say that all of the numbers are “guesstimates.” Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, noted that the virus can be slowed even before 85% or higher herd immunity is reached. “We don’t have to have zero transmission in order to have a decent society,” he said. “We have lots of disease, like flu, transmitting all the time, and we don’t shut down society for that. If we can vaccinate almost all of the people who are most at risk of severe outcomes, then this would become a milder disease.”
December 24: Fact check: No, the COVID-19 vaccines don’t have ‘toxins’ (WRAL, Raleigh, N.C.)
A Facebook post attributed to an alternative medical doctor made several misleading claims about the new coronavirus vaccines, according to experts. The post listed ingredients in the vaccines that they don’t contain. Kasisomayajula “Vish” Viswanath, Lee Kum Kee Professor of Health Communication, said that the post uses common anti-vaccine tactics, such as using what he calls “scientistic” language and claiming that it comes from a credible source. “This kind of tactic to list ingredients that may or may not be there is not new,” he said. “Anti-vaccine groups have always used a list of ingredients even after ingredients have been eliminated from vaccines. They misinterpret and distort scientific data to advance their agenda.”
December 24: ‘Trusted Messengers, Trusted Messages’: How To Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy (NPR)
Enlisting respected and well-known leaders to help explain health messages about COVID-19 is the right way to disarm and persuade skeptics, according to public health experts. Said Robert Blendon, Richard L. Menschel Professor of Public Health and Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis, Emeritus, “Waving journal studies and talking points won’t work in many communities,” particularly in ethnic and racial communities “that have a history of being demonized, lied to, or exploited in the U.S. when it comes to their health.”
December 24: Where COVID-19 spreads most easily, according to experts (ABC News)
Small indoor gatherings and households are where the coronavirus is spreading fastest, according to data. Eating in restaurants or bars has also been linked with the spread of the virus. Said Joseph Allen, associate professor of exposure assessment science and director of the Healthy Buildings program, “Since you have a restaurant with many people who are talking loudly [with] masks off, that leads to higher emission rates of respiratory aerosols, and, depending on how the ventilation system is working in the restaurant, determines how many infectious aerosols people are breathing.” What drives high transmission rates in both homes and restaurants, he said, is “time indoors, no masks, low or no ventilation.”
December 23: Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests (New York Times)
A preliminary study estimated that a new variant of the coronavirus is 56% more contagious than other strains, but also found no evidence that the variant is more deadly than others. Said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, “Does this matter? Yes. Is there evidence for increased transmission? Yes. Is this going to impact the next few months? Yes.” Given the findings, he said, “You need to be able to get whatever barriers to transmission you can out there as soon as possible.”
December 23: Should you worry about side effects of COVID-19 vaccines? (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Reported side effects of COVID-19 vaccines include fatigue, headache, muscle soreness, and warmth or swelling around the injection site, and, in rare cases, allergic reactions and Bell’s palsy, a temporary facial paralysis. Symptoms are evidence that the body is mounting a strong immune response, according to Barry Bloom, Joan L. and Julius H. Jacobson Research Professor of Public Health. “A reaction at the site of injection is a good thing, reflecting an immediate response to a foreign material that will ultimately enhance the immune response,” he said.
December 23: The World’s Most Loathed Industry Gave Us a Vaccine in Record Time (Bloomberg Businessweek)
The U.S. effort to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines has been remarkably successful, but other efforts to slow the spread of the virus have fallen short. Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology, thinks that if cheap, plentiful, rapid tests—similar to home pregnancy tests—had been developed months ago, they could have been crucial in stopping the pandemic. “The only way to deal with a virus like this appropriately is to try and identify people who are infectious,” said Mina, adding, “We make more bags of Doritos than I’m asking for. These are paper strips that get cut from one big piece of paper.”
December 23: New variant of COVID-19 in Europe (NewsWest9, Midland, Texas)
Commenting on a new variant of COVID-19 that appears to be even more contagious, William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, noted that the new strain has a larger-than-expected number of mutations. Barry Bloom, Joan L. and Julius H. Jacobson Research Professor of Public Health, said that no one knows yet if the current coronavirus vaccines can neutralize the variant, although early studies suggest that it will. He added that if vaccines are not effective enough against the variant, companies would be able to relatively quickly produce an updated vaccine.
