Even if Trump doesn’t win in November, the fundamentals remain the same. Europe remains entirely dependent on American defense, which Washington considers untenable. Meanwhile, the notion of strategic autonomy – regularly defended by French President Emmanuel Macron – remains both illusory and a source of irritation for Berlin, which sees it as an attempt to weaken transatlantic relations.
Indeed, Trump’s rhetoric succeeded in concentrating minds, forcing Europe to ask itself how it could defend itself. As Bruno Kahl, head of the German foreign intelligence service BND, said: “If the West does not demonstrate a clear desire to defend itself, Putin will no longer have any reason not to attack NATO. »
The fact is that Trump’s priorities in his first term were China and the Indo-Pacific, just as they were for former President Barack Obama – although both men would be reluctant to admit the similarity . And now, with tensions in the Middle East at breaking point, Trump will likely want to get rid of, he says, the irritation that is Ukraine.
Fortunately, there is broad consensus among European diplomats on the immediate steps they should take after a Trump victory: namely, persuading him to ensure that some future weapons can be sent to Ukraine, thus giving Europe the time to rearm kyiv and himself and persuade him not to enter into a unilateral agreement with Putin.
The decision by the US House of Representatives to release $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, in the face of fierce resistance from far-right Republicans, was extremely important, as it would provide Kiev with vital weapons and munitions for a few months. But that only saves time. The more than 100 opponents of the measure were largely from the Trump camp — although the man himself eventually took a more measured stance. Or rather, he chose to keep his options open.
The fact is that Trump remains transactional and Ukraine has nothing to offer him.
Politico
