Warning! Not all players will see the value they were promised in the 2024 fantasy football drafts? The Yahoo Fantasy team identifies four fading quarterbacks to avoid at their current ADP.
Yahoo ADP: 46.7
I don’t know of any pundits who are against Richardson, but some analysts have him over the moon in the summer draft season. In fact, my esteemed colleague Dalton Del Don ranks Richardson as his No. 1 quarterback. I know Richardson is linked to head coach Shane Steichen, one of the most admired point guards in the game. I also know Richardson did some funny things last year before he got hurt.
But we’re also talking about a player with four games of NFL experience, after a brief and erratic career in Florida that included just 393 pass attempts. I see potential in Richardson, but he’s typically drafted around his ceiling, and I’m unlikely to sign that kind of ticket for a player who’s barely played since high school. If you want a young, mobile, exciting quarterback at a more reasonable price, consider Jayden Daniels. Scott Pianowski
Yahoo ADP: 58.0
Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year that no NFL quarterback had ever suffered before. He had “good days and bad days” in May, though dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.
Injuries aside, Burrow has other red flags. Even if we completely ignore his incredibly poor first six games last season (5.3 YPA!) due to his calf injury, the overall change in Cincinnati’s offense hints at a larger problem. Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses began employing two-level safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in deep passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intentional air yards per attempt last season, and reports from Bengals camp suggest the same will be true in 2024. Quarterbacks can succeed with low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes much more difficult (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without a run.
Burrow was terrific after Cincinnati’s hiatus last season when healthy, and it’s possible the Bengals could run more frequently with Joe Mixon gone. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at this point in his career, and he’s managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing much more below par. There’s a risk here even beyond the injury history.
Burrow is selected as QB8 in Yahoo leagues, right around Kyler Murray and 40 choices before Jayden Daniels — two dual-threat QBs with higher fantasy potential who don’t have to face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns defenses for 35% of their schedule. Dalton Del Don
Yahoo ADP: 103.8
With the extreme depth at quarterback this year, your goal should be to draft a quarterback for his potential rather than play it safe. Take a risk and draft a quarterback who can reasonably finish in the top 5. If your quarterback doesn’t wow you, there will be plenty of solid streaming options on waivers. I’m eliminating quarterbacks who simply don’t have the running potential to finish in the top 5 and my biggest miss is Tua Tagovailoa.
In addition to his lack of rushing potential, Tua struggles to produce fantasy points in games against tough defenses and cold weather games. Tua’s playoff schedule is against Houston, San Francisco, and Cleveland. In the games leading up to the playoffs, he faces New England, plays Green Bay in a potential cold weather game, and faces the Jets. A low-end QB1 is the best-case scenario for Tua and you’ll be forced to give up on him before Week 12. Tera Roberts
Yahoo ADP: 43.2
It’s hard to overlook Stroud given the strength of his receiving corps; the opportunity to throw to the trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is not to be overlooked, and it should lead to continued efficiency in the passing game and likely an increase in touchdown production. But will it be enough to make up for the lack of upside he offers in terms of running?
Keep in mind that there have only been two quarterbacks to finish in the top five at the position with fewer than 200 rushing yards in the last five seasons: Tom Brady (2021) and Aaron Rodgers (2021, 2020). Stroud, meanwhile, has never rushed for more than 200 yards in a single season (even since high school). As much as I hate to write off a guy I could reasonably see ending up as the NFL’s true MVP, there’s simply not a high probability that he’ll have significant value being drafted as early as he is.
I’d rather spend a round earlier on Lamar Jackson (34.9 ADP) or take Anthony Richardson around the same spot Stroud comes off the board or wait for Kyler Murray, who is drafted about a round later in Yahoo leagues. Kate Magdziuk
