What the final polls show about the Senate swing state races ahead of Election Day 2022


“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Charles Franklin, who leads the Marquette Law School polls in Wisconsin, said Monday, days after his latest poll identified the state Senate and gubernatorial races as draws. spell. “But having been burned in 16 and 20, I’m not too confident.”

Another college pollster, Lee Miringoff of Marist College in New York, said the polls produced by his institution — which showed Democrats narrowly in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and tied in Georgia — “seemed reasonable.”

“But, again, compared to what? he asked rhetorically. “It is fair to say that there is greater uncertainty this time around.

So what will it mean if Tuesday is a GOP rout that nets the party dozens of House seats and easily delivers a majority in the Senate?

“At the simplest level, that means nothing we’ve done since 2016 has solved the problem” of inaccurate public polls, said Franklin of Marquette, when asked to respond to the hypothetical.

This is the latest edition of our roundup of Senate polls. It reflects polling averages at RealClearPolitics as of 8 p.m. ET Monday night. The 10 races listed below are those ranked “Lean Democratic”, “Toss Up” or “Lean Republican” in POLITICO’s election predictions.

1.

Arizona

MARK KELLY (R) against Blake Masters (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: Kelly +0.6 (Friday: Kelly +1)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: Biden +0.9
Possible margin: Biden +0.3

Arizona looks like a dead end. The final poll came from Democratic firm Data for Progress, which showed Republican Blake Masters at 50% and the Democratic senator. Mark Kelly at 49 percent. This is the only poll in the RealClearPolitics database to ever show the masters.

2.

Colorado

MICHAEL BENNET (R) vs. Joe O’Dea (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Democratic Lean
Average CPR polls: Bennet +5.7 (Friday: Bennet +5.3)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: no average
Possible margin: Biden +13.5

Just one new poll in Colorado since the weekend — from the aforementioned data for progress — and it gave the Democratic senator. Michael Benet a 7-point lead over Republican Joe O’Dea, 51% to 44%.

If Bennet gets 51% on Tuesday, it would be the first time he has won a majority vote. He was first elected in 2010 with 48%, and won a second full term just a tick below 50% in 2016.

3.

Georgia

RAPHAEL WARNOCK (R) against Herschel Walker (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: Walker +0.6 (Friday: Walker +0.4)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: Asset +1
Possible margin: Biden +0.3

A series of public polls over the weekend – most conducted by companies with Republican affiliations – show either a dead end or Republican Herschel Walker very slightly ahead.

The poll suggests Walker has a slightly better chance of receiving more votes on Tuesday, but the state’s runoff threshold (50% plus one) is a possible factor. In the Senate election two years ago, then-GOP Sen. David Perdue edged out the Democrat Jon Ossoff on Election Day, only to see Ossoff return and overtake him in the second round two months later.

4.

Nevada

CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (R) against Adam Laxalt (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: Laxalt +2.7 (Friday: Laxalt +1.9)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls Biden +2.4
Possible margin: Biden +2.7

The latest Nevada polls were good news for Republican Adam Laxalt, who led both polls released over the weekend, albeit by varying margins of 2 and 6 points.

A Cortez Masto win would mean outperforming his polls, but there’s precedent for that: in 2018, now Sen. Jacky Rosen was tied in RealClearPolitics’ final average with the then-Senator. Dean Heller, but she beat Heller by 5 points.

5.

New Hampshire

MAGGIE HASSAN (R) against Don Bolduc (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: Hassan +1.4 (Friday: Hassan +0.8)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: no average
Possible margin: Biden +7.2

Three late polls all showed the senator a Democrat. Maggie Hassan slightly ahead of Republican Don Bolduc by margins of 1 to 3 points – including a University of New Hampshire survey that had Hassan leading, 50% to 48%.

6.

North Carolina

Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: lean republican
Average CPR polls: Budd +6 (Friday: Budd +5)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: Asset +0.2
Possible margin: Asset +1.3

Among polls in the RealClearPolitics database, GOP Rep. Ted Bud has led by 4 to 6 points in each of the last nine polls.

seven.

Ohio

JD Vance (R) vs. Tim Ryan (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: lean republican
Average CPR polls: Vance +8 (Friday: Vance +5)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls Asset +1
Possible margin: Asset +8.2

Public polling suggests Republican JD Vance is heading for a relative victory: he led the Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan 10 points in the last two surveys, including one from the Democratic firm Data for Progress.

8.

Pennsylvania

Mehmet Oz (R) vs. John Fetterman (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: ounce +0.1 (Friday: ounce +0.1)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls Biden +1.2
Possible margin: Biden +1.2

The nation’s closest Senate race: Republican Mehmet Oz has the smallest possible lead in the RealClearPolitics average, though the last three polls are from Republican-affiliated companies and no polls have been added since our latest Friday update.

9

Washington

PATTY MURRAY (R) against Tiffany Smiley (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Democratic Lean
Average CPR polls: Murray +3 (Friday: Murray +3)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: Biden +21.5
Possible margin: Biden +20.3

Public polls ceased in October, but a super PAC supporting Republican Tiffany Smiley produced a survey showing Smiley tied with the Democratic senator. Patty Murray.

ten.

Wisconsin

RON JOHNSON (R) against Mandela Barnes (R)
POLITICO Election Prediction Assessment: Throw in the air
Average CPR polls: Johnson +3.3 (Fri: Johnson +3.2)
Final average of RCP 2020 polls: Biden +6.7
Possible margin: Biden +0.7

Data from Progress poured cold water Monday on any idea of ​​a Democrat Mandela Barnes comeback, showing Barnes trailing GOP Sen. Ron Johnson by 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent.


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