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What if a Spot Bitcoin ETF was approved? Galaxy Digital expects inflows in first year


Galaxy Digital, the crypto firm led by American billionaire Mike Novogratz, has predicted a major influx of capital into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Estimates suggest that these ETFs could see an impressive $14.4 billion in inflows in their inaugural year, which could reshape the investment landscape.

The firm says the appeal of spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeds existing investment avenues, such as trusts and futures, which currently hold assets valued at more than $21 billion. He noted that ETF inflows could increase by $27 billion by year two and $39 billion by year three.

Bitcoin ETFs Could Reshape Wealth Management

The potential ramifications of this projection are profound. Not only do these predictions suggest renewed investor interest, but they also signal a paradigm shift in approaching cryptocurrency investing.

By October 2023, Galaxy Digital posits that the U.S. wealth management industry could experience a monumental transformation, with assets managed by broker-dealers, banks, and registered investment advisors (RIAs) collectively rising to a staggering $48.3 trillion.

Galaxy says spot Bitcoin ETFs are a crucial development, promising investors a safe and regulated way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. These products would be facilitated through established partners, primarily traditional funds and banks with a proven track record of customer protection and robust investment offerings.

At the same time, recent market dynamics have demonstrated the demand for Bitcoin-based financial products. A simple rumor the previous week led to an unprecedented 10% rise in Bitcoin prices in a matter of hours. Additionally, the mere mention of BlackRock’s proposed Bitcoin ETF catalyzed a 12% rally on Monday, convincingly demonstrating the market’s responsiveness to ETF developments.

Is Bitcoin poised for a 74% surge?

Galaxy Digital’s projection of an inflow of $14.4 billion in the first year could significantly contribute to a remarkable 74% rise in Bitcoin prices. This anticipated increase is based on the assumption that the impact on liquidity and prices of billions of dollars of investments will transform the value of the cryptocurrency.

The perceived limitations of existing investment products further underscore the urgency of these spot Bitcoin ETFs. High fees, low liquidity, and tracking errors are endemic problems that have hampered accessibility for a wide range of investors.

In addition to alleviating these existing challenges, spot ETFs promise greater operational efficiency, according to Galaxy. This includes benefits in terms of fee structures, liquidity and price tracking. Although specific fee details have not yet been disclosed by Bitcoin ETF applicants, historical data indicates that these products generally offer lower fees than hedge funds or closed-end funds.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) evaluates applications from various industry players. Grayscale, BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck and several other high-profile companies have submitted proposals for spot Bitcoin ETFs, for a total of twelve. This dynamic speaks to the growing consensus on the potential of Bitcoin ETFs and the competitiveness among industry leaders seeking to pioneer this transformative financial instrument.

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