What Effects Would Congressional Term Limits Really Have on the Senate and House

Riding this wave of interest, a group of House Republicans – who were back in Washington this week after summer recess – are seeking to bring a proposed constitutional amendment on term limits to a vote in the room this session.

Such an amendment is unlikely to gain the two-thirds majority needed for ratification, let alone pass by three-fourths of state legislatures. But if that were the case, it would make the legislative branch as we know it unrecognizable.

The most popular term limits proposal, sponsored by Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), would limit Representatives to three terms and Senators to two. (A term in the House is two years and a term in the Senate is six. For members appointed or elected to fill a vacancy, the proposal would count a full term as serving more than one year in the House or three years in the Senate.)

As the chart above shows, more than half of sitting representatives have already crossed the three-term threshold – and many have served much longer than that. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who announced her candidacy for re-election this month, is serving her 19th term. Representatives Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) and Christopher H. Smith (R-N.J.) are serving their 22nd term.

Democrats outnumber Republicans 121 to 105 among House members who have served more than three terms. The gap is proportionately even larger in the highest ranks: Among members serving their 15th term or more, 17 are Democrats and three are Republicans.

More than five dozen House members are serving their third terms.

The youngest is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), 33, and the oldest is Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), 78. Most are between 40 and 60 years old.

In the Senate, most members are in their first or second term. Forty-two served longer than that.

Cruz will complete his second term after the next elections. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who at 52 is on the younger side of the chamber, is serving his third term. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whose freezes this year have agitated speech of term limits, is in his seventh term, and Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) is in his eighth, making him the longest-serving senator.

An amendment like the one proposed by Norman and Cruz would not instantly purge all of these lawmakers from office — under their proposal, time served before ratification would not count toward their eligibility for re-election.

But the clock on term length would start ticking for everyone upon ratification. In other words, House members would be removed from office for three terms after the amendment takes effect, senators after two. Never again will Congress see a lawmaker serve as long a term as Pelosi, Hoyer or Smith.

Is this a good or bad thing? It depends who you ask.

Supporters say term limits would rid Congress of entrenched and ineffective career politicians, replacing them with “citizen legislators” who are more in touch with the world outside Washington. Some have also proposed term limits as a way to rejuvenate Congress – or, in the words of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), to “end the gerontocracy of the establishment.” For lawmakers like Norman, himself in his fourth term, it’s also a matter of principle.

“Elective office should represent a short-term privilege of public service, not a career choice,” Norman said in a statement earlier this year. “Those of us in Congress should serve for a reasonable period of time and then go home to live by the laws we have enacted.”

Term limits also enjoy broad bipartisan support among Americans. A February survey by the University of Maryland found that 83 percent of registered voters — including 86 percent of Republicans and 80 percent of Democrats — supported a constitutional amendment limiting member terms. According to the survey, a majority of respondents said they felt incumbents had too much security in their seats, reducing their need to be responsive to their constituents.

But political experts on both the right and the left say experience matters when leading a country as complex and powerful as this one. Newcomers don’t have the connections or know-how to craft effective policies, they say, and may well end up relying on lobbyists, employees and civil servants in other areas of government to to make things progress.

“Essentially, you’re just giving more power to professionals in Washington,” said Philip Wallach, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “The workhorses of Congress know the value of being there a long time, and they know how to improve public policy through the expertise they have and the care they have taken to build relationships with other members.”

Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said term limits could worsen the revolving door problem between Congress and the private sector.

“It would create more forced opportunities for people to engage,” Reynolds said. “At the end of the day, if you take out more experienced members, what fills the void they left? »

If term limits were ratified before next fall, everyone elected to the House in 2024 would be out of office by January 2031, provided they have served three consecutive terms. The Senate could, in theory, be completely renewed by 2037. That said, nothing prevents someone from serving a term, leaving the government at the end of it, then returning some time later to introduce yourself again.

The last time term limits received Congressional attention was in the mid-1990s, when a new Republican majority made them part of their “Contract with America.” A series of votes fell short of the qualified majority required for adoption. This may happen again this time.

Find out how long your representatives have been in Congress using the tables below:

The legislator’s data comes from congressional legislators Open source dataset of members of Congress. Depending on the language of the bill, this analysis counts as a full term more than one year in the House or three years in the Senate.