What are the realistic expectations regarding Ukraine’s military offensive? : NPR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy listens to military commanders during his visit Tuesday to the eastern region of Donetsk, an area of ​​heavy fighting. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials say a major military offensive is expected to begin soon.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy listens to military commanders during his visit Tuesday to the eastern region of Donetsk, an area of ​​heavy fighting. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials say a major military offensive is expected to begin soon.

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Major military operations are normally shrouded in secrecy. But Ukraine’s planned offensive against Russia has been the subject of heated public debate for months. This created a wide range of expectations.

“In the best-case scenario, the Ukrainians really liberated a lot of territory, maybe even pushing the Russians back to the line on February 23 last year before this massive Russian invasion started. It would be a blow to Moscow “Steve said. Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who is now at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation

This scenario would undo Russia’s most significant military gain in the past year, the creation of a land bridge linking Russian troops in eastern Ukraine – the Donbass region – with Russian forces in the south – in the Crimea.

But Pifer acknowledges that it’s rather optimistic.

“A probably more realistic expectation is for the Ukrainians to take back a good chunk of territory, which would be seen in the West as underscoring that Ukraine has the potential to win,” he added.

The United States and other NATO nations are sending tanks, drones and artillery to Ukraine – giving it more firepower than ever – as it plans this offensive.

The West has also recently pledged to meet Ukraine’s longstanding demand for F-16 fighter jets, although the Ukrainian Air Force has yet to learn to fly and maintain these planes. Americans, a process that is expected to take months.

Meanwhile, this long Ukrainian buildup has given Russia time to reinforce vulnerable points in the south and east, where Ukraine is most likely to attack.

Satellite photos show the Russians digging new trenches to defend possible Ukrainian approaches to Crimea, and Russia is said to have sent additional troops to the area.

On Sunday, Ukrainian soldiers climb atop an armored personnel carrier in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine.

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On Sunday, Ukrainian soldiers climb atop an armored personnel carrier in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine.

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When will the offensive begin?

Despite all the public talk about the offensive, Ukraine has kept a secret when it plans to launch the operation in earnest. Ukrainian political and military leaders are repeatedly asked this question, and they have a ready-made answer: “soon”.

Some analysts say the initial stages of the offensive may already be underway, a reference to a wave of surprise, relatively small attacks inside Russia.

This includes the pair of drones that hit the Kremlin in Moscow earlier this month, causing only minor physical damage to a building’s domed roof, but causing Russians a psychological jolt.

Ukraine is intentionally vague about attacks inside Russia, neither confirming nor denying their involvement. But there is an almost universal belief that Ukraine is responsible, and it is a way of keeping Russia off balance before the offensive.

Michael Kofman, who works at the Center for Naval Analyses, a US government-funded think tank, believes a Ukrainian offensive can succeed. But he said it will certainly be more difficult than the one last fall that drove Russian troops from significant areas in the northeast and south.

“It may require multiple offensives on multiple fronts and will likely be conducted over months rather than days or weeks,” Kofman said.

“I think the Russian forces must be seen as decisively defeated in this operation. Ukraine must demonstrate in this phase of the war that it is still capable of breaking through the Russian lines,” he added.

The Ukrainian offensive carries great risks. Angela Stent of Georgetown University said Ukraine needed to step forward on the battlefield to maintain the high level of political and military support it receives from the West.

“If they don’t do much, it’s going to be a lot harder to justify providing all the weapons,” Stent said. “I think Ukraine could say, if they take back territory, ‘Look, we’re making progress. It’s very difficult. We still need equipment, money, and please send- us more.'”

Kofman noted that Ukraine and its Western supporters may well have different definitions of success.

“The honest answer is, I think we’ll find out when we see it,” he said. “And this will to some extent be interpreted subjectively by different capitals in Europe and among Ukraine’s other Western partners.”

An offensive likely to be significant, but unlikely to end the war

Analysts agree on another key point. Regardless of how this Ukrainian offensive goes, they don’t think it will end the war.

They see Russian leader Vladimir Putin playing the long game, believing he can wear down Ukraine’s military and undermine the West’s will to provide sustained support.

“Russia has three times the population of Ukraine, so the Russians still have hundreds of thousands of young men, cannon fodder, that they can conscript,” Stent said.

“Ukraine doesn’t have an infinite number of young men it can send to the front lines. Russia could keep sending people to the battlefield longer than Ukraine,” she added.

Steven Pifer, meanwhile, was a longtime diplomat. But he doesn’t think now is the right time for peace talks.

“I believe that at some point there will be a negotiation in this war between Kiev and Moscow, but not now and not until the Russians have shown absolutely no indication that they are serious,” he said. he declares.

“You will see people suggesting, ‘Well, it’s time to encourage the Ukrainians to negotiate. I don’t agree with that,” he added. “I worry about people who are ready to start talking about what kind of territory Ukraine should cede to Russia, even if that is not their territory to cede.”

Ukraine surprised the world many times throughout the war, Pifer said. Prepare, he added, to be surprised again.

Greg Myre is a national security correspondent for NPR. follow him @gregmyre1.