Weekly Market Outlook (September 18-22)

EVENTS TO COME:

• Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, NAHB US Housing Market Index.
• Tuesday: Minutes of RBA meetings, IPC in Canada, building permits in the United States and construction starts.
• Wednesday: PBoC LPR, UK CPI, BoC Summary of Deliberations, FOMC Policy Decision.
• THURSDAY: New Zealand GDP, BNS policy decision, BoE policy decision, US jobless claims.
• Friday: Japan CPI, BoJ policy decision, UK retail sales, Canadian retail sales, flash PMIs for AU, Japan, UK, Eurozone and US.

Tuesday

The Canadian Y/Y headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.8% from 3.3% previously, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% from 0.6% previously. The Bank of Canada continues to complain about the slow disinflation of underlying measures, which have exceeded expectations in previous months although they were lower than previous figures. There is currently no consensus on fundamental measures, but higher numbers would put the central bank in a difficult position given the recent rise in wage growth.

Wednesday

UK headline year-on-year CPI is expected to increase to 7.1% from 6.8% previously, while the M/M reading is estimated at 0.7% from -0.4% previously. Such an increase is due to rising energy prices, with central banks currently more focused on core measures. UK core CPI year-on-year is expected at 6.8% from 6.9% previously, while the M/M figure is estimated at an uncomfortable 0.7% from 0.3 % previously. This report is unlikely to change market prices for this week’s BoE meeting, at which the central bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, but it will influence expectations for future meetings.

The Fed is expected to keep rates steady between 5.25 and 5.50%, but the market will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot to see if the central bank still sees the need for another hike rates or if it has already reached its terminal rate. As a reminder, in the June Dot Plot, the Fed increased its terminal rate projections by 50 basis points, to 5.6%, compared to 5.1% in March. The market currently believes there is a 50/50 chance of another rate hike at the November meeting, given the strength of recent economic data, with rate cuts planned for the third quarter of 2024.

THURSDAY

The SNB is expected to keep rates stable at 1.75% given weak economic data and the fact that headline and core inflation measures are within the SNB’s 0-2% target range.

The BoE is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50, with Dhingra the usual dissenter. Recent communication seems to be more geared towards keeping interest rates high long enough to allow the ongoing tightening to materialize. Nonetheless, the central bank should keep all options on the table given its inflation and wage growth rates.

U.S. jobless claims once again exceeded expectations last week as the job market continued to slow although it remained quite tight. This week, consensus forecasts initial claims at 225,000 vs. 220,000 and continuing claims at 1,695,000 vs. 1,688,000.

Friday

The BoJ is expected to keep everything unchanged with rates at -0.10% and YCC is expected to target 10-year JGBs at 0% with a soft cap at -/+0.50% and a hard cap at 1.00%. The 10-year yield recently climbed to 0.70% following comments from BoJ Governor Ueda on a “quiet exit” from the NIRP if data supports such a move. The BoJ, of course, stepped in by buying an unlimited number of JGBs last week, as it has already repeatedly said it would do so if the pace of moves was too fast. Additionally, data on wage growth continues to point to a slowdown, a phenomenon the BOJ is monitoring very closely.

Flash PMIs are typically big players in the market because they are the most important leading indicators we have. The market is expected to focus on the Eurozone and US PMIs, with the latter likely to have a greater impact on global markets depending on the outcome. The US manufacturing PMI is expected to match the previous reading at 47.9, while the services PMI is expected to decline to 50.3 from 50.5 previously.