Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is struggling to garner the same level of support among black voters against Republican nominee Hershel Walker as he did in the 2021 special election.
Despite claims by establishment media that Warnock solidified the black vote, Warnock grapples with black voters as an incumbent. The media points to a poll where Warnock leads with 80% of the black vote. But 80% is an underperformance compared to his two-point victory over the Republican candidate Kelly Loeffler in 2021.
In 2021, Warnock won 92% of the black vote, 12 points shy of the last poll in Warnock’s race against former college football star and Trump-endorsed candidate Hershel Walker.
Worse for Warnock is that nine percent of black voters remain undecided, meaning Walker could capture a large percentage of the undecided. Typically, a large number of undecided favor the challenger over the incumbent because the incumbent has a track record that voters oppose.
Warnock’s record includes voting for President Joe Biden’s massive spending bills over the past two years, which have fueled inflation. Experts predict that inflation will cost American families $5,520 in 2022. Since Democrats took control of the legislative and executive branches of government, Americans have lost $4,200 in annual income, according to a recent study by the Heritage Foundation.
Inflation is the number one issue among black voters in Georgia. Thirty-four percent (a plurality) of black voters say soaring inflation is the main problem, according to a September Marist poll. According to a recent Ipsos poll, 43% of Americans fear inflation will continue to soar under the Democratic regime if the party remains in power on Capitol Hill. Only 24% say the same of Republicans.
As inflation dominates Georgia’s midterm Senate elections, Warnock polling data is in line with declining national trends for the Democratic Party. According to a CNN poll, 74% of black voters prefer the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, up from 84% in 2020. In 2018, 85% of black voters preferred the Democratic Party. In the same time frame, Republicans have picked up three points, rising from 9% to 12%.
Follow Wendell Husebo on Twitter @WendellHusebo. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.