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The USDCAD goes back below its MM 100H. The 200H MA is profiled below

The USDCAD fell on Friday after a much better-than-expected Canadian employment report. A large net job gain of 153,000 (vs. 35,000 estimated) and a significantly lower unemployment rate (6.0% vs. 6.6% estimated) led to a rapid decline.

However, falling buyers leaned against the 200-hour moving average (green line) for the second time this week (falling buyers also bought against the AM on Wednesday) and price closed near the high. of the day at 1.28533.

Today the sellers are back. Previous week’s highs between 1.2828 and 1.2836 stalled the rally, and more recently sellers took the price below the 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.2798 – see blue line ).

If the price can now stay below the 100-hour moving average, a test of the 200-hour moving average rising to 1.27579 would be the next major target. Needless to say, with the supportive buyers leaning against that moving average level on Wednesday and Friday, the previous one was set for the falling buyers to lean again. However, if the level were to be broken I would expect stops to be triggered and the price to probe further lower.

Other downward targets would include the

  • Friday low at 1.27428, and the
  • Last week low at 1.27105

The 38.2% retracement of the bullish move from the October 26 low is another target if there is further weakness. That level stands at 1.26413, which is also close to the swing lows dating back to November 24 or November 25 before the pair’s last upward move.


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