USDCAD moves higher. Macklem speaks later today.

USDCAD above swing zone now with 2023 50% above

The USDCAD is trading at a new session high and in doing so erases prior declines.

Looking at the hourly chart, price hi yesterday hit the midpoint of 50% decline from hi 2023 (from Jan 3). This level is located at 1.34729. Yesterday’s high extended to 1.34748 (just above that 50% mid-level) before reversing lower and closing at 1.3445.

After a downward rotation in the Asian session that saw the price drop below the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.3423 to a session low of 1.3400 (a nice round number), price rose and fell early in the European session, with resistance coming in between a swing zone between 1.3434 and 1.3445 (see red numbered circles). The past hour has seen a rotation above this swing zone towards the new high of the day at 1.34634.

On the upper side, the 50% retracement remains a key objective to reach and cross. Not only did USDCAD price lock in the upside during yesterday’s trade around this level, but the pair also locked in the upside last week near the level. Exceeding this level opens the door for further bullish momentum with 1.3497 (let’s call it 1.3500) as the next target followed by a swing zone between 1.3512 and 1.3526. The 100-day moving averages at 1.35317.

What would spoil a potential upside move?

Breaking back below the 1.3434 – 1.3445 area would disappoint buyers with a move below the 1.3423 level another indication that the buying momentum just isn’t there.


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