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US nonfarm payroll estimate for November 210K vs. 550K.

Non-farm payroll employment data in the United States for November 2021

  • Before was 531K revised to 546K
  • Net overhaul over two months + 82K
  • Non-farm payroll estimate 210K vs 550K
  • Unemployment rate 4.2% vs. 4.5% estimate. Last month’s unemployment rate 4.6%
  • Participation rate 61.8% vs. 61.6% estimate. Last month 61.6%. Pre-pandemic 63.5%
  • Underemployment rate 7.8% vs. 8.4% estimate. Last month 8.3%. Pre-pandemic 7.0%
  • Average hourly compensation year-on-year 4.8% vs. 5.0% estimate. Last month 4.9%
  • Average hourly compensation MoM 0.3% against 0.4% estimate.
  • Change in manufacturing payroll 31K vs 50K estimate. Last month + 60K.
  • Total private employment 235K

Looking at the different sectors:

Goods producing 60K vs. 108K last month

  • Manufacturing + 31K vs. 48K last month
  • Construction + 31K vs. 43K last month
  • Mining and logging -2K vs. + 3K last month

175K service jobs vs. 534K last month (revised from 496K last month):

  • Commercial transportation and utilities 37K
  • Information -2K
  • Financial activity 13K
  • Professional Services to Businesses + 90K
  • education and health services plus 4K
  • Leisure and hospitality + 23K
  • Other services +10 K

Government Jobs -20 5K:

  • Federal + 2K
  • State -9K
  • Local -18K

Good and bad in the report. The number of non-farm workers was obviously much lower than expected. The two month review saw October revised higher by 15K. September was revised up from 67K for a net two-month revision of + 82K.

The unemployment rate has fallen faster than expected and the participation rate has also increased.

The rate of underemployment was also lower than expected.

Average hourly wages were lower, which is positive for inflation but remains high at 4.8% year on year.

The dollar’s initial reaction was to the downside, but these gains were reversed.

  • EURUSD rose above its 100 hour moving average at 1.13125, but is currently back below that level at 1.1310.
  • GBPUSD rose to test its 100 hour moving average at 1.33036, but is currently falling back to 1.3286.
  • The USDJPY fell below its 100 hour moving average at 113.23 to hit a low of 112.977, but is back in trading just off the 100 hour moving average level.

US equity futures are higher with the NASDAQ up about 92 points. The Dow industrial average lags but still up 100 points


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