US CPI report due Tuesday, September 13, 2022 – preview

The August US inflation report is due on Tuesday:

  • This snapshot of the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
  • The times in the leftmost column are GMT.
  • The numbers in the rightmost column are the “previous” result (previous month/quarter, as applicable). The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the expected consensus median.

Via Scotia, in summary:

  • Tuesday’s CPI numbers…may further indicate whether the FOMC is up 75bps or 50bps on Sept. 21, but there’s a high bar on whether they matter.
  • I say high bar because when given the option to rely on market prices for a 75 basis point move, Chairman Powell dropped it when he appeared at a Cato Institute event. Several of his FOMC colleagues seemed to be behaving the same way.
  • It would likely take a big downside miss to core CPI to knock the Fed off course and even that isn’t assured.
  • It is the annualized reading of the core CPI month-over-month that matters more than the year-over-year rate and thus an estimated reading of 6.3% m/m SAAR in the Core CPI would likely motivate the FOMC to believe that core inflation continues to run hot with broad pressures.
  • One of the entries in the call is the Cleveland Fed’s CPI “nowcasts.” … They have been a useful but not infallible source of input into estimates. Still, the underlying inflation signal points to a warm reading that should lead markets to look through the global influences stemming from energy prices.


Not all news on the site expresses the point of view of the site, but we transmit this news automatically and translate it through programmatic technology on the site and not from a human editor.
Back to top button