UFC Fight Night picks and predictions live from Las Vegas, Nevada!
Tonight’s UFC card will air live on ESPN the network and ESPN+, scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET.
Fresh off a profitable UFC 277, we’re back at the UFC APEX center and their smaller cage. This map won’t spill anyone’s hair, but there are still some interesting fights to dissect.
This includes The Ultimate Fighter Finale (which no one watches anymore) and a few other seemingly non-UFC caliber fighters. There are still a few bets worth hitting there, though.
We have had a small problem in the last 5 weeks. We got up to 31.64 units of profit, but fell to 26.81 units of profit. However, we took advantage of the last week and there are some betting spots worth targeting today.
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UFC Fight Night Vegas picks and predictions today
Jamahal Hill (-300) vs Thiago Santos (+240)
At light heavyweight, Jamahal Hill takes on former contender Thiago Santos. He’s a heavy favorite this weekend, one of the biggest of his career despite Santos’ profile as a step up in the competition.
Hill has shown phenomenal power in his punches, with four of his five UFC wins ending in a knockout by punches. Hill was submitted against Paul Craig in one of the most brutal finishes we’ve seen in the UFC; if you seek it, viewer discretion is advised.
Craig is a jiu-jitsu expert, and Hill’s lack of skill on the mat is a bit of a stretch. Also, Santos isn’t a threat to submit on his back, so as long as Hill stays calm and lands body shots that kill his opponent’s gas tank, he should be rolling here.
Overall, Santos has been primarily a division keeper since having multiple knee surgeries following his war with Jon Jones in 2019.
Hill is way too big of a favorite on his money line and not worth betting there. Instead, grab a flyer on a Hill knockout. Santos has been very careful to avoid damage early on recently. Perhaps he survives longer than bettors think; the fight to end in the first round is +145 on FanDuel (40.82% implied), which is ridiculous.
Hill to win by KO/TKO in the second or third round is +350 on FanDuel and is more or less a flyer assuming Santos goes into low volume survival mode midway through the first round. Otherwise, feel free to forward this main event to the light heavyweights.
UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks
- Hill wins by KO/TKO in rounds two or three +350 (FanDuel)
Bet on sports?
Geoff Neal (+155) against Vicente Luque (-190)
A very fun co-main event featuring Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal takes place at 170 pounds. Both fighters are presented as absolute junkies who never shy away from taking damage in striking exchanges.
Luque is the rightful favorite here as he possesses the ability to finish on the ground and on the feet, unlike Neal. Neal hasn’t finished since winning Kevin Holland by knockout in 2017. He also hasn’t been submitted since 2013. Neal hasn’t finished any of his nine UFC fights.
The interesting data point here is that neither fighter finished their UFC careers, despite a combined 27 UFC fights. Surely Luque could take this fight to the mat and seek out his favorite anaconda or arce choke.
However, he usually targets this choke when his opponent first shoots for a takedown. Luque rarely resorts to wrestling to get his takedowns and secure submissions. He hasn’t managed to land a takedown since 2017, according to UFC stats.
Look for this fight as a three-round stand-up war where Luque does more damage and takes the win. This could happen by late decision or stoppage. The bet below is a solid way to bet on this fight tonight.
UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks
- Luque wins in turn 3 or by decision +175 (PointsBet)
UFC Fight Night Vegas Parade
This bet was placed on BetMGM Sportsbook, which offers many of its users a UFC parlay chip boost (20% boost) on all parlays of three or more legs. (Offers may vary, check the promotions page to see if you qualify).
+403 at +501: Usman/Pauga goes the distance +110 + Luque ML (-190) + Lipski/Cachoeira (-175)
- Mohammad Usman and Zac Pauga is the final season finale of Ultimate Fighter. Three of Usman’s last four fights have gone to decision, and four of Pauga’s last five have come by decision. More money is very reasonable play here in a low level fight. Consider it a better bet.
New York Post