U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report Due Friday, July 8, 2022 – Preview


Due at 12:30 GMT:

Extract via Societe Generale:

  • Job gains are slowing, and we see that as inevitable as more unemployed people found jobs and the jobless rate fell well below 4%.
  • Strong employment, however, is how we interpret an increase of almost 300,000 jobs in one month.
  • Trucking, delivery, food service and healthcare remain areas of recovery and growth for job markets.
  • We expect the jobless rate to come down slightly to 3.5% in June, possibly very soon.
  • A rising labor force participation rate (more people entering the labor market) is a pro-growth factor that can stabilize the unemployment rate, preventing a decline, even when the economy is strong. Later, as firms reduce their demand for labour, smaller employment gains explain why the unemployment rate stabilizes or begins to rise.

Westpac:

  • payrolls should reflect moderate but still healthy employment growth in June (Westpac f/c: +300,000, market f/c +268,000),
  • continued pressure on the unemployment rate (Westpac & market f/c: 3.6%)
  • and support robust average hourly wage growth (Westpac & market f/c: 0.3%).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.


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