Overall confidence improves, but consumers are more concerned about the labor market
NEW YORK, August 27, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in August to 103.3 (1985=100), compared to an upwardly revised level of 101.9 in July. Current situation index—based on consumers’ assessment of current labor and business conditions—improved to 134.4 from 133.1 in July. Expectations Index— based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — also improved in August, to 82.5. With the July expectations index revised up to 81.1, August marked the second straight month the index has been above 80. (A reading below 80 typically signals a coming recession.) The deadline for preliminary results was Aug. 15, 2019. August 21, 2024.
“Overall consumer confidence increased in August, but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” it said. Dana M. PetersonChief Economist at the Conference Board“Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared with July, they were more positive about the current and future economic situation, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the future labor market were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also somewhat less positive about their future income.”
“In August, confidence declined among consumers under 35, while it increased for those aged 35 and over. Based on the six-month moving average, confidence remained highest among younger consumers. Despite the overall improvement in the headline index, confidence declined for consumers earning less than 35 years. $25,000. Based on a six-month moving average, consumers earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident. Consumer confidence gaining $15,000 has $24.9K continued to fall and was almost as low as for those earning less than $15,000” . “
Peterson added: “Consumers were likely shaken by the turbulence in financial markets in early August, as they were less optimistic about the stock marketIn August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to rise in the coming year (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected them to fall (up from 23.1%). August’s written responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumers’ views of the U.S. economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession:the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak.”
Consumer reviews of their Current financial situation of the family Forecasts were less positive, but consumers were more optimistic about the next six months. (These measures are not included in the calculation of the consumer confidence index.)®.)
12-month average inflation forecast fell to 4.9% in August, its lowest level since March 2020 and consistent with slower overall inflation and falling prices for some goods. Nevertheless, mentions of prices and inflation have exceeded written answersAt the same time, the share of consumers expecting an increase interest rate over the next 12 months fell for the third consecutive month to 46.5%, the lowest since February 2024The share of people expecting a rate cut rose to 31.5%, the highest level since April 2020.
Based on a six-month moving average, purchase plans For houses fell to a fresh 12-year low, while purchase plans for cars slightly improved. Purchase plans for expensive household appliances increased on average, but this increase was driven by only a few items: refrigerator, television and washing machine. Plans to buy a smartphone Or laptop/pc Over the next six months, the numbers increased further.
In the August written responses, the share of respondents believing that the 2024 elections would have an impact on the economy was stable, slightly above 2020 levels but well below the August 2016 level.
Current situation
Consumer Reviews current business conditions The results were more positive in August.
- 20.8% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 19.2% in July.
- 17.7% said business conditions were “bad,” compared to 18.2% previously.
But consumer ratings on the labor market deteriorated in August.
- 32.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 33.4% in July.
- 16.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up slightly from 16.3%.
Expectations in six months
Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook in August.
- 18.4% of consumers expect the economic situation to improve, compared to 15.2% in July.
- 15.6% expect the economic situation to deteriorate, compared to 16.2% previously.
Consumer reviews of Labor market outlook were slightly less optimistic in August.
- 16.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.2% in July.
- 17.5% anticipate a decrease in jobs, compared to 16.4% previously.
Consumer reviews of their income prospects were more pessimistic in August.
- 16.9% of consumers expect their income to increase, compared to 17.2% in July.
- 12.7% expect their income to fall, compared to 11.6% previously.
Evaluation of Family Finances and Recession Risk
- Consumers’ evaluation of their Current financial situation of the family weakened further in August.
- However, consumer ratings of their Family financial situation moving forward has improved.
- Consumers Perceived probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months remained virtually unchanged and well below the 2023 peak.
Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise and panel of more than 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results was August 21.
Source: August 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Council
The Conference Board releases consumer confidence index® has 10 a.m. ET the last Tuesday of each month. Subscription information and technical notes for this series are available on the Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is a member-driven think tank that provides trusted information on what lies ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.
SOURCE The Conference Board
