Voters are confused, which is helping Democrats right now. Abortion rights activists had predicted the end of Roe since the 2016 election, and the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg nearly four years later made many of them more worried that it would happen and that a new 6-3 conservative majority was going to topple Roe.
But were voters paying attention? Not really. Last month, a YouGov poll for The Economist found that just 20% of Americans thought it was “likely” or certain that Roe would fall, compared to 34% who said it was unlikely. In a Washington Post and ABC News poll, most voters in six states where new abortion restrictions have been passed — Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Texas and Wyoming — completely ignored them.