With 12 games on the NHL schedule, we have plenty to think about Thursday night. When scanning the board, there appears to be a shots on goal (SOG) prop value again.
Not only are there some intriguing angles to target, but we have a high chance of loading up.
Here are seven games for Thursday, six of which are plus-money.
Parlay .5u: Josh Norris on 2.5 SOG and Alex Ovechkin on 3.5 SOG (+213 DK)
Now none of these guys are playing against teams that I usually target for shots. Boston and Toronto are both seeing under 30 shots per game against them at their location, so why are we playing two guys against them?
The answer lies in power play data and opportunity. Boston is averaging the most penalties per game over the past 10 games and Toronto is averaging fourth.
Both Norris and Ovechkin are the strongest shooters in the power play. Over the last 20 games, Ovechkin leads the league in power-play shots and Norris is fourth.
These guys sit on the power play and throw one-timers at the net. Considering they should both get their chances on Thursday, I like that they hit those numbers.
Parlay: Tage Thompson & Elias Pettersson on 2.5 SOG (+169 DK)
Tage Thompson’s inclusion here is simple, he’s almost automatic at home. Thompson has hit his SOG in 83% of home games this year.
That’s a success rate I want to track, and with St. Louis giving up 34 shots per game in its last five road games, that’s a good target for me. Thompson had eight SOG against the Blues when they last met.
We pair him with Elias Pettersson, who rolls with punches. Pettersson has covered his SOG prop in six consecutive games and 10 of his last 12 at home.
Arizona is allowing 36.5 shots per game on the road in its last ten, still a good team to bet against.
Brayden Point on 2.5 SOG (-110 DK)
I definitely want to target Anaheim on Thursday because they’ve allowed 34.6 shots per game on the road in their last 10 games.
Brayden Point passes me at very reasonable odds on the Tampa side. He’s hit his SOG prop in six of 10 games, had four against Anaheim in the last meeting, and his attempts go up when he’s skating at home.
Point brings us the best odds on the Tampa side in a good game.
Tony DeAngelo on 2.5 SOG (+140 DK)
Targeting Detroit for shooting props is always a worthwhile exercise, as they’ve been beaten to the tune of 36.7 shots per game on the road.
DeAngelo has been very consistent for Carolina lately, covering his shots in six of seven games overall and six of his last seven games at home.
Since March 1, Detroit is allowing the second-most shots per game on defenders, so give me DeAngelo at a fantastic price.
Leon Draisaitl on 3.5 SOG (+130 DK)
I’m giving our guy Leon Draisaitl another chance after he let us down a few days ago. At this price, so much the better.
Nashville is another team that averages a ton of penalties (the second in the last 10 games), and Draisaitl operates at high volume on the power play. Draisaitl ranks sixth in the NHL in power-play shots over the last 20 games.
He doesn’t just rely on the PP for his chances, but that’s just icing on the cake.
Nashville is allowing 32.2 shots per game at home in its last 10 and Draisaitl has covered his SOG prop in seven of his last nine.
He’s also topped 3.5 in both games against the Predators this season.
Filip Forsberg on 3.5 SOG (+130 DK)
We remain in this match with Filip Forsberg, who has been driving at home lately. Forsberg has had more than four shots on goal in three straight home games, with a monster 27 attempts in that span.
Averaging 7.8 over his last five, I’m that stroke volume.
Edmonton is allowing 31.7 shots per game on the road in its last 10 games.
Seth Jones on 2.5 SOG (+105 DK)
We’ll end the day’s spots with Seth Jones at solid odds. Jones draws a San Jose team that’s been getting hammered by shots lately.
They’ve seen 35.2 per game against them on the road in the last 10, a number that rises to 38.2 in their last five.
I love that Jones is continuing his momentum. He was hit in four of five home games and covered when he faced the Sharks early in the season.
San Jose is a good target for defenders, which puts Jones on the brink.
Good luck Thursday! Let’s go straight into the NHL this Thursday night and start a new streak.