After resisting for a long time, the labor market seems to be caught up in the deterioration of the economic context with a halt in the third quarter of the drop in the number of unemployed registered with Pôle Emploi. The number of unemployed (category A, without activity) thus remained stable in France (excluding Mayotte) in the third quarter compared to the second, at 3.164 million registered (-1,700), according to figures published Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor . The stability is identical including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle Emploi) at 5.436 million (-1,000 people).
A slight drop of 0.8% in the second quarter
Over one year, the drop remains very marked, both for category A (-10.9%, 388,000 fewer unemployed) and for ABC (-7.1%). But this plateau comes after an already weak drop of 0.8% in the second quarter, far from the declines of 5% recorded in the first quarter of 2022 and the last quarter of 2021. Will the dynamism of the labor market finally be caught up by the consequences? the economic slowdown, the war in Ukraine or the rise in energy prices?
“It is certain that since the beginning of the year, the bad news is piling up. And there is always a lag of a quarter or two on the labor market, it is rather logical that unemployment stops decrease”, comments Éric Heyer, economist at the OFCE. In its latest economic report, INSEE predicts that the unemployment rate in France should remain at 7.4% of the active population “until the end of 2022”.
But the economist remains cautious on the interpretations of this stabilization of unemployment. “Despite the economic slowdown, job creations continued to be dynamic in the first half. he.
Exits from Pôle emploi down sharply
INSEE still forecasts 58,000 net creations in the second half, a figure that is still substantial even if significantly lower than in the first half (+187,000 salaried jobs). “The stabilization of the number of job seekers could also be the consequence of the return from inactivity of people who have survived in the labor market when it is dynamic. All of this remains rather vague”, recognizes Éric Heyer.
Moreover, entries to Pôle emploi in categories A, B and C continued to decrease slightly over the quarter (-0.8%), with a sharp drop in entries to decrease economically (-14.5%). On the other hand, exits from the Pôle emploi fell sharply (-5.5%).
Uncertainty on the evolution of employment and unemployment
In category A, the number of job seekers rose by 1.5% quarterly for those under 25 (-16.1% over one year). It remained stable for 25-49 year olds and fell by 0.7% for those aged 50 and over (-9% over one year). Other good news, on the long-term unemployment front, the number of jobseekers registered for a year or more fell by 2.2% in the third quarter (-14.4% over one year) to 2.369 million (categories A , B and C). The share of job seekers registered for a year or more reached 46.3% (-3.8 points over one year).
This uncertainty about the evolution of employment and unemployment will not fail to be highlighted by the unions opposed to the new reform of unemployment insurance which plans to have the rules assessed according to the state of the market. to work. The Senate adopted Tuesday evening in first reading the bill which will allow this modulation. It is the subject of consultation between the government and the social partners which “should last six to eight weeks”, specified the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt.