First we had the call from Lagarde for higher rates.
Next, we asked Schnabel to lay out the case for being more aggressive
Now we have a report from “ECB sources” doing the rounds that officials are increasingly seeing the main refinancing rate move above zero this year.
March orders have been issued. The ECB is tired of waiting for inflation to come down on its own and will rise at least twice this year.
Normally this would allow the euro to recover – and it may still do – but the growth trajectory is so bad in Europe and the imminent return (in 2024, probably) of fiscal rules makes it a place difficult to invest.