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The bad news continues to arrive for kyiv as problems far from the battlefield threaten to make Ukraine’s situation worse.

Nature

  • Polls show U.S. support for military aid to Ukraine is declining among political parties.

  • The focus on the war between Israel and Hamas and the new Republican Party speaker in the House could cause more problems.

  • A government shutdown also looms as Biden asks Congress for billions in aid to Israel and Ukraine.

This month has brought a series of bad news for Ukraine that has nothing to do with battlefield losses – and there may be more on the horizon.

Ukraine has been heavily dependent on Western aid since Russia invaded in February 2022, sparking a war that has lasted far longer than expected. The Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in June has also progressed more slowly than many hoped, despite weapons supplies from the West.

In early October, polls showed that support for arming Ukraine had declined among Americans of both political parties, a worrying sign for kyiv. Prospects for U.S. aid to Ukraine further deteriorated on October 7, when Hamas launched a wave of attacks against Israel, provoking rapid reprisals and counterattacks in Gaza.

The war between Israel and Hamas has since dominated American media coverage and the attention of many people in Washington, DC. Nora Bensahel, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and an expert on US defense policy and military operations, told Insider that the Ukrainians and their allies fear that the focus on Gaza could take resources away from their fight .

“This focus on Gaza will become even more intense when Israel launches a ground invasion, partly but not only because of the immense humanitarian crisis that will result,” Bensahel said Friday, just as the ground invasion began. from Gaza by Israel.

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass a $105 billion military aid package, primarily for Israel and Ukraine, but it is unclear whether it will pass, largely because of The other bad news Kiev received recently: the new Speaker of the House, Republican Representative Mike Johnson.

“If I were Ukrainian, I would also be concerned about the new Speaker of the House, since Johnson is among the far-right Republicans who voted to limit aid to Ukraine,” Bensahel said.

Johnson, who was elected president on Oct. 25 after the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, indicated he was still open to additional funding for Kyiv, despite hesitation among some in his party.

However, in the past, he has voted with a minority of House Republicans against additional aid. The advocacy group Republicans for Ukraine gave him an “F” grade for his support of Ukraine.

While Biden’s funding request appeared to have broad support in the Senate this week, its fate was uncertain in the House, where some Republicans are wary of additional support for Ukraine. Potentially to satisfy those members, Johnson released a bill on Monday that would cut $14 billion in aid to Israel, separating it from the broader package requested by Biden.

The other potential bad news for Kyiv is that Congress will seek to avert an imminent government shutdown on November 17. Lawmakers avoided a shutdown late last month in part by cutting new aid to Ukraine as part of a spending deal.

As the war drags on, other problems could arise in kyiv in the future. Simon Milesassistant professor at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider Ukraine could face a bigger challenge in a year, when the presidential election of 2024.

“A Trump presidency will be bad news for Ukraine, and I think we need to take seriously the likelihood that this conflict will not be resolved by then,” Miles said.

In addition to withholding aid, the United States may also limit U.S.-made weapons that European countries can supply to Ukraine from their own stockpiles.

“I think right now Putin’s plan is to wait for these elections, and probably try to use Russian capabilities to influence them, in the hope that this will lead to starving the effort. Ukrainian war,” Miles said. “I don’t think this will mean the end of Ukraine’s capacity to resist, but it will undoubtedly change the nature of the conflict.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Nature

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