Temperatures are hovering between 60 and 70 this week

The essential

Let me first address the elephant in the room: the big Memorial Day weekend forecast. Many forecasters have announced a “washout” – but let’s keep our horses here. I’ll admit it’s a complicated and close situation, with a potential coastal storm system in play. But there’s a reason I’m creating a Five Daily forecast for the web – anything beyond that is generally unreliable. It is therefore too early to talk about the details of temperature and rainfall for the bank holiday weekend. But I promise you that we will be watching how the week unfolds closely.

In the meantime, Monday will be a continuation of Sunday’s good weather. The big challenge during the work week will be a change in wind direction. Cool ocean air blowing in at 60 degrees will cause temperature issues along the Jersey Shore.

A cold front arrives Wednesday evening, with a chance of showers and a chill.

Monday

For most of the state, Monday’s weather will be very similar to Sunday’s. Lots of sunshine, dry weather and seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

There are two exceptions. First, a change in wind direction from north to southeast is expected on Monday afternoon. It’s a land breeze. And the water in the Atlantic Ocean is still only around 59-62 degrees. So the Jersey Shore — especially areas east of the Garden State Parkway — will likely see air temperatures plummet into the 60s on Monday afternoon. Some additional clouds can also be integrated.

The second exception is minor. There is a slight chance of showers or splashes in far northern New Jersey Monday evening.

Otherwise, Monday night will be calm and partly cloudy. Low temperatures are expected to average below 50 degrees by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

High pressure will continue to control our atmosphere. But we will still see that breeze (light but persistent) from the southeast.

Therefore, I’ve toned down the forecast a bit, with high temperatures ranging from 60 on the barrier islands, to 65 degrees in mainland coastal towns, to around 70 degrees in the New Jersey interior.

Another beautiful day. Just a little cooler than normal for late May.

Wednesday

Wednesday has the potential to be the hottest day of the week as highs reach the mid-70s away from the coast.

We should have good sun on Wednesday morning and afternoon too. And then, some changes will ensue as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

The breeze will increase from Wednesday mid-afternoon, with maximum gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Clouds will increase around this same period.

And then a batch of showers will push into northwest New Jersey around dinnertime Wednesday, rolling south and east through late evening. There’s a very good chance that this band of rain will dissipate before it hits the coast, so not everyone in New Jersey will get wet. Even if you do, total precipitation will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch.

An impact for everyone on Wednesday evening will be the return of cool temperatures. And the return of the weather jacket. We could see widespread 40s by Thursday morning. Maybe even 30 years (and spotty frosts?) in northwestern New Jersey.

THURSDAY

Thursday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. But still enjoyable overall.

High temperatures will be limited to the mid 60s on Thursday afternoon. It’s about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Skies will clear throughout Thursday. Not sure if we’ll go full throttle “mostly sunny” or halfway “partly sunny”. But Thursday looks dry and not too windy.

The long term forecast

In play for Memorial Day weekend is a coastal storm system. Past models showed a wet start to the holiday weekend for NJ. Latest indications show that energy and moisture remain locked in our south, keeping Saturday dry and Sunday only partially rainy.

Which of these solutions will play? Probably neither. Since each model and each run shows a different result, forecast confidence remains unusually low for the weekend forecast. I could see things going wet or dry. And temperatures will follow, with highs somewhere between the 60s and 80s, depending on cloud cover and the extent of precipitation.

Take any weekend predictions you see with a gigantic grain of salt for now. We will start talking more seriously about holiday weather details from Wednesday. Not before.

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.