The key bias and technical levels of some of the major currency pairs
The trading day is coming to an end with stocks rising sharply. This dynamic has the flow of funds in “risk-on” currencies including the NZD, CAD and AUD. These three currencies are the strongest of the majors.
The biggest loser is the JPY followed by the USD when traders exit these currencies (they tend to lose the relative supply of safety). US yields are also lower on the day the US dollar falls.
So how did the movements change, or strengthen, the technical picture of some of the major currency pairs.
With the current price at 1.1595, the tilt in favor of the buyers as long as the 1.1583 area at 1.1586 holds support. If it cannot hold, traders will look to the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.1571 and 1.1567 as their next targets with an even more bearish break below.
Alternatively, maintaining key support and moving above a swing level between 1.1607 and 1.16127 would be more bullish, with traders targeting the day’s high at 1.1624 and the October 4th high. at 1.1640.
USDJPY held support against a trendline on the hourly chart and the MA rose 100 hours (at 113.29 and 113.253, respectively). This gives buyers more control.
That said, today’s high came to a halt before Tuesday’s double-high and Wednesday at 113.798. In the new day, if buyers want to keep the momentum on the upside, reaching and staying above 113.798 is the first step.
A move above would then target 114.03, which is the November 28, 2018 swing high. Above is the November 12 high at 114.20.
GBPUSD rose during the European session and, in the process, climbed to test an old low dating back to August and September. This low became a high from September and this high has been retested today and kept in the 1.3725 to 1.3733 area. The subsequent decline in the US session saw price hold against Monday’s high at 1.36738.
As the new day dawns, support at 1.36738 and resistance at 1.3733 remain the important levels. Going below support increases the bearish bias. Stay above and the buyers stay in the game. Move above the extreme high and the buyers add to their bullish bias.
The current price is trading near the below 1.3684 level.
The AUDUSD rose today to break its 100-day moving average at 0.74133. The current price is trading at 0.74164 just above this level after trading above and below during the US trading session.
The level of the moving average will be the barometer of the bias of the new trading day. If the price starts to see more buying momentum with a move above the Thursday high at 0.74259, look for additional bullish momentum with 0.74676 (September 7th high) and 0, 7477 (September 3 high) as next bullish targets.
Move below the MA and a rotation towards Wednesday’s high price at 0.7384 would be a bearish target.