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TD on oil – sees no significant rise above $100 a barrel – but watch for escalation in the Middle East

I posted an analysis of TD here earlier:

Added some additional notes, including forecasts for WTI:

  • Current positioning analyzes suggest substantial buying activity could occur north of $90.50/barrel Brent, supporting continued strength
  • the risk premium induced by the current conflict between Israel and Hamas leads us to assert that WTI crude will trade above the $90 per barrel mark in the last quarter of the year, with Brent approaching the three-digit bar.

  • At this stage, we do not expect a significant rise above $100/bbl, as we expect OPEC+ to continue supplying crude at expected levels and we believe that the presence of the attack group of US aircraft carrier and military aircraft near Israel are likely to maintain the flow of crude without significant interruption
  • any spread of violence in the (Strait of Hormuz) region that significantly interrupts these flows could potentially push prices to new heights. In such a scenario, crude at more than $150/bbl would be entirely possible.


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