On January 9, the Georgia Bulldogs will face the TCU Horned Frogs in the ninth edition of the College Football Playoffs (CFP) National Championship Game.
Georgia opened as a 13.5-point favorite at FOX betwith an opening Over/Under (total) at 61.5.
According to FOX Sports Research, it’s the biggest gap to a title game since the BCS instituted one in 1998. The previous high came when Miami was a 12-point favorite over the State of the Ohio during the 2002 BCS Championship game.
Kirby Smart & Co. will make their third appearance in the game, losing to Alabama in the 2017 season and then defeating the Tide in last year’s national title. TCU, meanwhile, will make its first appearance in the big dance under freshman head coach Sonny Dykes.
To break down the big game even deeper, FOX Sports Research decided to take a look at historical league game trends to give you a betting advantage on Monday. Below are trends dissected from two different time lenses: the start of the BCS era (since 1998) followed by the start of the CFP era (since 2014).
Here’s how the teams fared against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU), along with various Over/Under notes.
Since the beginning of the BCS (1998):
- Favorites are 12-12 ATS and 15-9 SU in the championship game
- The double-digit underdogs are 2-0 ATS and SU in the National Championship; Oklahoma (+11.5) beat Florida State in the 2000 season, and ohio state (+12) beat Miami in the 2002 season
- Favorites over seven points in title game are 3-5 ATS and 4-4 SU
- SEC teams are 14-6 ATS and 14-6 SU in the championship game
- Big 12 teams are 2-5 ATS and 2-5 SU in title game
- No. 1 team in AP poll is 11-10 ATS and SU in title game
- The No. 3 team in the AP poll is 3-5 ATS and 2-6 SU in the championship game
- The Over hit in 13 of 24 National Championship games (one push)
- In games where the Over/Under was over 60, the Under hit in four of seven games (one push)
- Georgia is looking to become the second consecutive national champion of the BCS era. Alabama did it in 2011 and 2012.
- Alabama did it in 2011 and 2012
Since the start of the CFP (2014):
- Favorites are 3-5 ATS and 5-3 SU in the championship game
- The six-plus point favorites are 1-3 ATS and 2-2 SU in the title game
- SEC teams are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 SU in championship game
- The Big 12 never had a team in the title game
- The No. 1 team in the AP poll is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU in the championship game
- No. 3 team in AP poll is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU in title game
- The Over hit in five of eight National Championship games (one push)
- In games where the Over/Under was over 60, it split at 1-1, with a three-game push combined
- Georgia is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU in the championship game
- The Bulldogs seek to become the first consecutive national champion of the CFP era
So are you ready to bet on the CFP title game? Head to FOX bet now for all your bets!
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