With the restaurant employment boom “behind us”, we expect a slowdown in payroll growth in 2024
One of the biggest contributors to the post-pandemic job market boom is the downturn.
New data from ADP released Wednesday found that the United States added 103,000 private payroll jobs, below economists’ expectations of 110,000 job gains. One of the sectors lagging furthest in the job market turned out to be leisure and hospitality, once an industry that couldn’t find enough workers during the heat of the pandemic. The sector lost 7,000 jobs in November.
“Restaurants and hotels have been the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “But that momentum is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests that the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”
Wednesday’s data is consistent with other signs that the job market is normalizing after the pandemic. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, released Tuesday, found that the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1, 34, its lowest level since August 2021. The unemployment rate has increased over the past year. for several months, up from its lowest level in several decades, and employees have not fled their jobs at the same rate as the “quiet abandonment” craze in 2021.
Part of this could be because they aren’t rewarded as much for leaving. Other data from ADP shows that annual wage growth for workers who change jobs fell to 8.3% in November, the slowest pace of growth since June 2021. Meanwhile, workers who have kept the same job saw their wages rise 5.6% last month, the lowest since September 2021. The reward for changing jobs is now the lowest in three years, the data point tracked ADP.