Snapshot: November nonfarm payrolls by the numbers

  • Consensus estimate +200K
  • Private +190K
  • October +233K
  • Consensus estimate of the unemployment rate: 3.7% against 3.7% previously li>
  • Participation rate before 62.2%
  • Underemployment before U6 6.8%
  • Average hourly earnings y/y exp +4.6% y/y vs +4.7% before
  • Average hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs. +0.4% before
  • Average weekly hours exp 34.5 vs. 34.5 before

Here’s the November job board so far:

  • ADP employment 127,000 against 200,000 expected
  • ISM manufacturing employment 48.4 vs. 50.0 previously
  • Challenger job cuts increased 416.5% year-over-year
  • Employment Philly 7.1 vs. 28.5 before
  • Employment Empire 12.2 against 7.7 before
  • Initial survey of unemployment claims week 223K vs 228K exp
  • ISM Services job is not yet published

USD/JPY has experienced an absolute bottleneck over the past three days, including a 120 pip drop today. This surely drove many away from the crowded long side of the trade. The bond rally has also been curious over the past 24 hours. All of this leaves the market vulnerable to bilateral risks.

This article was written by Adam Button on


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