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Should investors be worried about Tesla’s missed Q1 deliveries?


Eelectric car manufacturer You’re here (NASDAQ: TSLA) announced first-quarter deliveries on Saturday. Although record shipments were well above what they were a year ago, they were below analysts’ average estimate for the quarter.

On the one hand, Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries are an impressive achievement given global supply chain challenges. On the other hand, however, the fact that they were worse than expected further confirms to investors that the auto industry is struggling to recover from the shortages of chips and other parts and logistical issues plaguing it.

Model S. Image source: Tesla.

Tesla First Quarter Deliveries: The Raw Numbers

Tesla delivered about 310,000 vehicles in the first quarter. This record quarterly figure is up from around 309,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021, but represents a staggering 68% year-over-year growth rate. The figure also notably puts Tesla’s last 12-month deliveries at over one million (around 1,061,000) – for the first time. This represents an increase from 12-month deliveries of around 596,000 just a year ago.

Deliveries during the quarter consisted of 295,324 Model 3 and Y vehicles combined and 14,724 Model S and X vehicles in total. Model 3 and Model Y shipments declined slightly sequentially while Model S and Model X shipments increased by 25% over the same period. The strong sequential increase in Model S and X deliveries reflects Tesla’s continued ramp-up of production of these vehicles following a design overhaul in early 2021 that required updates to the production line. production of the electric car manufacturer.

Analysts on average expected Tesla to deliver about 317,000 vehicles during the period. The underperformance likely surprised some investors, as sequential growth was the slowest Tesla had seen in years.

There is hope for a strong second half

While shipments in the quarter may have missed analysts’ estimates, there are still good reasons to expect further acceleration in sequential growth later this year, especially during the second half of 2022. The company said in its fourth quarter update that it expects production levels to increase at its existing plants and will bring production online at new plants in 2022. production has already started at the company’s plant in Germany. And Tesla could be months away from starting production at its new factory in Texas.

But things could get worse before they get better. Tesla’s factory in China is currently on a production hiatus due to COVID-19 restrictions. In addition, it takes time to ramp up production in new factories. So any impact from Tesla’s Berlin plant in the second quarter could be very small.

Despite supply shortages and a pause in production in China, Tesla’s forecast for 50% growth this year could be conservative enough that the company still easily tops that range, especially if some supply constraints are eased. in the second half of the year – – just as production can potentially reach significant levels in new plants.

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Daniel Sparks has no position in the stocks mentioned. Its clients may hold shares in the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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