Russia’s oil and gas revenues expected to rise 14% in September, calculations show

Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which account for about a third of total federal budget revenues, are expected to amount to about 733 billion rubles ($7.6 billion) in September, up 14% from in the previous month, according to Reuters calculations published on Tuesday.

The corresponding figure in September 2022 was 688 billion rubles.

The increase reflects a 24 percent month-on-month increase to 1.1 trillion rubles in proceeds from a tax on mining, according to calculations based on data from industry sources and official statistics on the production, refining and supply of oil and gas to the domestic market. and international markets.

Net revenue is lower than gross tax revenue due to reverse payments, including a “cushioning mechanism” that subsidizes companies to continue supplying the domestic market when fuel export prices are high.

The budget is expected to return some 278 billion rubles to refineries under the depreciation mechanism in September, according to Reuters calculations.

Revenue from oil and gas sales is crucial to Russia’s commodity-driven economy and to financing what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The Ministry of Finance is expected to publish its data on budget revenues from oil and gas in early October.

The ministry forecasts that these revenues will decline this year by 23 percent to 8.94 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit is estimated at almost 3 trillion rubles, or 2 percent of gross domestic product.