Russian tanks and infantry, backed by powerful artillery and airstrikes, captured a key settlement and gained ground in the eastern sector of Donbas on Tuesday, according to ground reports and media reports.
Ukrainian troops, fighting with a 4-to-1 disadvantage in firepower, reportedly abandoned Novohrodivka, a sizable city with a pre-war population of 14,000, after failing to stop frontal assaults by Kremlin forces in three days of urban fighting.
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However, as of Wednesday morning, the Ukrainian military had not yet officially acknowledged the loss.
Ukrainian media and social media reported on Wednesday that kyiv’s troops had been pushed out of Novohrodivka. Focus magazine, citing reports from the frontline, said Ukrainian commanders were trying to build new defense lines centered on a coal dump to the west, but Russian assaults continued.
Russian news platforms have widely confirmed the capture of Novohrodivka, calling it a clear victory and evidence that the Kremlin’s offensive in Donbass is gaining momentum. The widely read and Moscow-loyal Telegram news platform Dva Mayora reported to more than half a million subscribers: “The pace of our attacks is accelerating.”
The Washington DC-based Institute for Study of War (ISW) said in a situation report on Tuesday: “Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction while reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from some areas southeast of Pokrovsk.”
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Russia’s full control of Novohrodivka could not be fully confirmed by independent sources, but there was no doubt that Kremlin forces had advanced two kilometers in recent days and pushed back strong forces in the city deep into Ukrainian defenses that were struggling to hold their positions, the analysis said.
Some Ukrainian military bloggers, without providing evidence, have claimed that the evacuation of Novohrodivka by kyiv’s troops was due to panic and that the defenders abandoned their weapons and fled. The ISW report says there is evidence that at least some Ukrainian forces retreated in an orderly manner.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Russian commanders were unaware of the losses they suffered during their attempts to flood Ukrainian positions with men and machines.
“Sometimes it happens that where there are three (Russian) brigades, there is no difference between three or five brigades… the Russian assault troops have no way not to advance, because there are blocking detachments behind them that will shoot at the attackers if they retreat,” Zelensky told reporters at a public forum in kyiv.
Orders have been given to transfer troops to the region to strengthen defenses, and other measures have been taken to halt Russian attacks, the Ukrainian leader said.
Located on the strategically important E50 highway, halfway between the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk and the Ukrainian-controlled city of Pokrovsk, Novohrodivka was a potential strongpoint for Ukrainian forces to halt the main thrust of a relentless Russian offensive launched in May.
Some Ukrainian media outlets on Wednesday openly criticized the loss of the city by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in 72 hours, comparing it to the AFU’s fierce resistance in cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which cost the Kremlin months of time and thousands of casualties to capture.
Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov said in an editorial published Wednesday that Ukraine’s defenses were on the verge of collapse: “The situation in the Pokrovsk sector is no longer critical, it is already catastrophic. Despite Zelensky’s promise, not a single decent fortification has been built there. Now there is a complete loss of control at the operational and tactical levels.”
Pro-Moscow military blogger RybarZ reported in a post on Tuesday that Kremlin forces advanced 1.4 kilometers overnight and also captured the nearby villages of Memryk and Marinivka without any resistance, he wrote.
He also reported that Russian forces had “liberated” the village of Kostyantynivka (not the town), further south in the Vuhledar area, in another successful attack.
The Kiev military analytical group uacontrolmap confirmed the capture of Kostyantynivka by the Russians and the weakening of Ukrainian defenses in the sector. The Kremlin forces are suffering heavy, sometimes terrible, losses in order to gain ground, but the assaults are incessant. The Russian attacks are successful and the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is “rapidly deteriorating,” the platform said.
American analyst Donald Hill said Tuesday in an analysis of the Russian offensive in Donbass that the Pokrovsk and adjacent Avdiivka sectors “remain the absolute target of the Russians. Indeed, the Tsentr group (of the Russian army) is attacking with – de facto – two combined armies comprising all elements of the 1st, 15th, 30th and 114th MRB, the entire 27th motorized rifle division and the 90th tank division, as well as the 201st military base, plus dozens of battalions of mobiks (poorly trained reservists) intended to replenish the destroyed units.”
“The Russian air force has complete air superiority over this part of Ukraine. In addition, they have a 4-to-1 Russian advantage in terms of troops, artillery and FPV,” Hill said.
Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky told reporters via video link on Tuesday that military intelligence had estimated that the Kremlin plans to concentrate between 50,000 and 60,000 troops for its offensive in Donbass. About one in three battles on the entire front of the Russian-Ukrainian war is taking place in the Pokrovsk sector, Syrsky said.
The situation in the Donbass sector was “extremely difficult,” Mr. Syrsky said.
