Russia Is Rushing Reinforcements Into Its Ocheretyne Breakthrough

Six days after breaking through Ukrainian lines west of Avdiivka, Russian brigades and regiments are slowly expanding their salient – ​​an eight-kilometre-deep stab wound plunging into Ukrainian territory, the tip of which is lodged in the village of Ocheretyne.

The situation is desperate for exhausted Ukrainian brigades in the region. It is certain that the Ukrainians will lose a few villages around the Ocheretyne axis.

The real risk, however, is that Ukraine’s Tavriya operational and strategic group – the command responsible for forces west of Adviivka – will have no choice but to cut its losses, retreating a few kilometers towards the west and to reconsolidate along a new defensive line which extends for several kilometers. from the north to the southwest of Ocheretyne.

This retreat could cede dozens of square kilometers of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to life under brutal occupation.

Worse still, the retreat – if poorly executed – would represent an opportunity for the Russians to redouble their local attacks and achieve a second, third or fourth breakthrough that could, like a chain reaction, trigger a broader collapse of the Ukraine.

Retirement is extremely risky, even if it is the best option. This is why disciplined armies plan retrograde act at least as carefully as they intend offensive action. “Retreats are the most difficult operations for any commander or force,” wrote historian Andrew OG Young in Retreating armies: chaos, cohesion and consequences.

How the Russians broke through the Ukrainian line west of Avdiivka last weekend is the subject of heated debate in kyiv and across the war’s 600-mile front line Russian against Ukraine which lasts 26 months.

Some observers blamed the Ukrainian army’s 115th mechanized brigade, which recently took up positions in Ocheretyne and was immediately overwhelmed by the Russian army’s 30th motorized rifle brigade.

Others have pointed out that the 115th Mechanized Brigade is under-equipped and, like all Ukrainian units, short of ammunition while awaiting new supplies from the United States – supplies that have been delayed for six months by pro-Russian Republicans of the American Congress.

It should be noted that all Ukrainian brigades are struggling to maintain defensive positions under incessant bombardment. “The aggressor has an air and artillery advantage, launching almost continuous strikes on the positions of the Tavriya OSG,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

The imbalance in firepower could prove decisive as the battle rages on. Sensing an opportunity and apparently confident of their chances, Russian commanders pushed the 15th and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigades into the salient along with elements of the 90th Tank Division and some special forces.

At least seven Ukrainian brigades and a separate battalion responded: the 23rd, 25th, 47th, 100th and 115th mechanized brigades, the 25th air assault brigade, the 3rd assault brigade and the 425th assault battalion. Brigades generally deploy only one battalion at a time.

In total, it is clear that the Russians have more than 10,000 troops in or near the salient. Barely 3,000 Ukrainians oppose it, if the Center for Defense Strategies’ estimate is correct.

It is easier to defend than to attack, even when the attacker has a firepower advantage. The Russians are therefore not guaranteed to win the battle and force the Ukrainians to withdraw.

The Center for Defense Strategies highlighted one of the major risks. “Resupply of the advanced units of the enemy’s 30th motorized rifle brigade, which broke through to Ocheretyn, is effectively blocked by the Ukrainian defense forces, which are in full control of fire on this route.”

Penetrating five miles into Ukrainian territory, the westernmost Russian troops found themselves essentially alone and far from their main supply lines. They are vulnerable. If Ukrainian troops manage to starve them out before Russian reinforcements widen the salient and strengthen their logistics, the Russians could well lose this fight.

It’s the optimistic result for the Ukrainian brigades, outnumbered and outgunned, around Ocheretyne. THE realistic the result is that they attempt a combative retreat towards the west.

But the Ukrainians are desperate to avoid retreating. It’s just too risky.

Sources:

1. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-250424; https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-250424

2. Control map of Ukraine: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=48.203251744836834%2C37.60548925433536&z=12

3. Andrew OG Young: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Research%20and%20Books/2023/ArmiesRetrt-HeckMills-2023.pdf