Our tipster Jones Knows gets creative and combines three short fantasies into a 3/1 hat-trick for Wednesday’s action. Watch every race live on Sky Sports Racing.
Saffron Beach is emerging as the biggest hit of the meeting, judged on how its price has fallen in recent days in the Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes (4.20). All I can see in his race makeup are negatives, negatives, negatives.
First, she carries a group one penalty in this case, something 11 horses have attempted to challenge in the past, and all have failed, with only one making the frame.
She also possesses the completely wrong racing style of being a top runner for the one-mile straight track at Ascot. Hold-up horses enjoy this event, especially in this race where 13 of the last 17 winners have been selected for winning runs. Additionally, she finished behind her rival Mother Earth every time there was “farm” in the running description. In her first run of the season, she is so vulnerable against quality opposition here.
Thus, she should be faced in a race ripe for a game each way in just eight races. You also have the security of recovering your bets up to £10 if your horse finishes second or third, courtesy of Sky Bet. I struggled to nail my colors to a single horse in opposition, but if you feel like it against Saffron Beach, fill your boots, that would be my advice.
Whether Maria Branwell has the momentum to live with the two market leaders, Love Reigns and Dramatized, both of which are lightning fast, tempers my enthusiasm for a winning bet on David O’Meara’s filly in the Queen Mary (2.30) but nothing will finish stronger than her at the line judged on her performance at Sandown.
She somehow managed to stick the well-supported Crispy Cat into the dying strides, showing an attitude that makes me want to be her kicking friend. The extra experience she brings to the party also puts her in a good position to put on a solid run with 17 of the last 24 winners of this contest having had two or more races before winning this one. A set of results that exceeds market expectations compared to those who only have one race to their name.
With Sky Bet offering seven places in the market, the 5/6 of her being in the top seven certainly deserves serious consideration as that 54% probability chance seriously underestimates her place chance. I would have it closer to 70%.
Speaking of horses with a great attitude, Nahanni is ready to work well in the Queen’s Vase (3.05).
He lost any chance at the start of the Derby, but came home in the final two stages to finish seventh. Many will view this race at Epsom as a negative as it is a short delay, but horses that run back from the Oaks or the Derby to a Royal Ascot race have a win and win rate of almost 40%, which gives me confidence the bold Charlie Appleby’s horse will race.
I wouldn’t put anyone off having a game each way with Sky Bet paying out five places, but Eldar Eldarov has potential for Roger Varian and is feared. That means my angle is to take the safe route and pull back Nahanni to finish in the top five.
3pts tripled on: Marina Branwell finishes in the top seven, Nahanni will finish in the top five and Saffron Beach will not win the Duke Of Cambridgeshire Stakes (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)