Republicans are reeling from political shockwaves in must-win North Carolina

The controversy surrounding a Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina is causing political turmoil in a key state for Donald Trump. The BBC asked conservatives in the state what they thought about the alleged scandal.

It was at a regular meeting of the Johnston County Republican Women’s Committee that they learned the news.

Across North Carolina on Thursday, Republicans and Democrats awaited what was billed as a shocking revelation about Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

The cabinetmaker-turned-politician, who is running to become the state’s first black governor, called himself a “black Nazi” on a pornographic website more than a decade ago, according to a CNN report.

Robinson, who identifies as an evangelical Christian, called the reports “tabloid lies.” The BBC has not independently verified CNN’s claims.

But when the news finally broke, it caused little stir, at least not among this polite gathering of Johnston County women.

“If the allegations are true, that’s up to him and his wife to sort out. It’s not my business. It’s a marital issue,” said Adele Walker, 52.

Shortly after, the group discussed his plan to donate $200 to his campaign, in which he already trails Democratic candidate Josh Stein, the state attorney general.

“We decided to give Mr. Robinson even more money,” she said.

The views of conservative women like Walker are being watched closely in this election, not just in North Carolina, but across the country. The Tar Heel State is facing one of the tightest races in the country heading into the November election.

Trump had previously given Robinson a glowing endorsement, calling him “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

Even before CNN’s investigation was published, Robinson was already under surveillance.

He faced backlash over comments he posted in a 2019 Facebook video about abortion on demand, when he said women should be “responsible enough to keep their skirts down.”

In 2021, he said children in schools should not be taught “transgenderism, homosexuality, all that crap,” and later rejected calls to apologise.

“I think it’s fair to call Robinson’s campaign a complete fire at this point,” said Steven Greene, a political scientist at North Carolina State University.

Some Republicans worry that Robinson could become a political liability, forcing their voters to stay home or increasing Democratic turnout.

North Carolina has remained “stubbornly Republican,” Greene said. Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win the state in 44 years, and he only managed to do so once, in 2008.

But the growth of the state’s urban centers has tipped the political scales in favor of Democrats, who hope this is the year they can turn North Carolina blue.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released Thursday, before CNN’s report on Robinson, showed Harris leading Trump by one percentage point.

This remains well within the margin of error, meaning the race is still very uncertain.

The state is critical to the Republican White House candidate, Greene said.

“It’s much harder to imagine Donald Trump reaching 270 votes without North Carolina than Kamala Harris,” he said, referring to the number of Electoral College votes needed to clinch the US presidency.

Scott Lassiter, a Republican running for state Senate, expressed disappointment that Robinson did not drop out before the state’s deadline Thursday, allowing another party candidate to take his place.

Lassiter said Robinson was a gift to Democrats, who “would like every race down the ballot to be about Mark Robinson at this point.”

Once a regular at Trump campaign events in the state, Robinson will not attend the former president’s rally in Wilmington on Saturday, according to reports.

But Robinson’s loved ones remain at his side.

Guilford County Chairman Chris Meadows, a Republican, said he has known Robinson, who is from the area, for years.

“Our position is that these are baseless allegations and accusations,” he said.

“In the age of AI enhancement, I really don’t give any credence to any of this until he admits it.

“CNN has had many credibility issues for many years.”

Ultimately, Greene said, the presidential race will hinge entirely on voter turnout, and it’s not yet clear what effect Robinson will have on that figure.

He was already known for his outrageous statements. People have probably already largely made up their minds, he said.

That’s certainly what seemed to be happening in Johnston County.

One Republican voter, who asked not to be named, said he would not vote for Robinson, who he said “had a big mouth.”

But he has no problem voting for Trump.

“I don’t know what Trump knew about Robinson. The news about Robinson has no effect on me,” he said.

Evelyn Costelloe, 66, who has voted Republican in the past but not recently, said she would support Democrats because of their stance on abortion. And Robinson’s comments didn’t help either, she said.

“I don’t know about all these accusations, but I know what he said. That kind of thing makes me want to vote, for sure,” she told the BBC.

Given that Trump only won North Carolina by about 75,000 votes in 2020, even a little political damage from Robinson could make a difference.

For now, though, North Carolina remains a deep shade of purple.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher covers the race for the White House in his weekly newsletter US Election Unspun.

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