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Regional: the four unknowns of the campaign – Regional elections 2021


1 Who to support Chesnais-Girard?

Favoring an offensive in Blitzkrieg mode, the PS Regional President will wait until the last moment to declare himself. According to our information, he has already chosen his campaign manager. This is’Arnaud Lécuyer, Mayor of Saint-Pôtan (22) and president of Dinan Agglomeration. The two men got to know each other in 2015 during Jean-Yves Le Drian’s campaign.

The Liffréen consults, moreover, at all costs to constitute his list. By relying on the faithful of its current majority: Fanny Chappé, Anne Gallo – of whom it is said that she could form a duet with Paul Molac in Morbihan – Laurence Fortin, Pierre Pouliquen or even Stéphane Perrin. Enough to make the difference when he would have already confided in a small committee that he would throw in the towel if he did not reach 20% in the first round? Not sure. This is perhaps the reason why he would have tried, at the beginning of February, a game of poker by proposing the head of the list in the Côtes-d’Armor to Thierry burlot, candidate supported by En Marche and the centrists. Proposal that the latter hastened to reject.

Greatest fear of the Breton PS: see Chesnais-Girard arrive after Europe Ecology the Greens in the first round. He reassured himself, however, by blessing the candidacy of Daniel Cueff, which comes to bite on the electorate of the Greens.

2 Can Burlot really win?

En Marche and the centrists think they hold in Thierry Burlot, the suitable candidate, synthesis of the two faces of macronism in Brittany: Jean-Yves Le Drian and Richard Ferrand. It is around mid-March that he should officially declare himself. And this is where we can truly judge. In the meantime, his opponents doubt his ability to campaign. He is sometimes said to be a blunderer and too free in his words. “Besides, he’s not overflowing with charisma. Burlot is going to take a jerk off, ”bet this elected representative on the right.

At LREM, on the contrary, we praise its unifying side and the seriousness with which it works its files. And to recall his handily re-elected to the Loire Bretagne basin committee. The man does not lack courage either. In the summer of 2019, before the administrative court of Rennes, he had come support the former mayor of Langouët Daniel Cueff for its anti-pesticide decree. Faced with white-hot environmental activists, he did not hesitate to speak, ignoring the boos.

Burlot is actively working on building its list. A country room was found in Rennes. And then some names start to circulate. In Morbihan, we talk a lot about the mayor of Grand-Champ and first vice-president of Vannes Agglomeration Yves Bleunven. In Ille-et-Vilaine, the subject is debated. The Modem Marie-Pierre Vedrenne would be at the top of the list. But Burlot could finally occupy the place in order to leave the field open to Olivier Allain in the Côtes-d’Armor. As for Finistère, it is the preserve of Richard Ferrand. And at this point, nothing is stopped.

All this remains however very hypothetical since it is necessary, at the same time, to wait for the white smoke on the centrist side. Joy of alliances obliges. After Dinan, the latter must meet again in the coming days, this time in Pontivy, to refine their programmatic base.

3 Which candidate will Jean-Yves Le Drian support?

The man hates to the highest point that one speaks in his name and does not have the easy confidence. Yet many of them believe they are capable of deciphering Ledrianesque thought. If he is not the type to let himself be imposed a rhythm, all confirm that Jean-Yves Le Drian is today in a delicate situation. Who, among Chesnais-Girard and Burlot, to support? Friendship and esteem for the first – to whom he gave up his chair in 2017 -; respect for the second: his heart swings. As for pure walkers, we are nevertheless convinced that the Lorientais will end up officially supporting the candidacy of Thierry Burlot. And we hope for a sign around mid-March. Yet other voices believe that Le Drian will work tirelessly to the end for an LCG-Burlot alliance in the second round. Quite a challenge. “The Socialists will not want it. For Jean-Yves, it’s mission impossible ”, bet this cacique of the PS.

4 Can Le Callennec create a surprise?

Isabelle Le Callennec? “It’s Le Fur with a wig,” ironically this elected socialist weight. Way to return the candidate of the right to the conservative ideas of the deputy of Côtes-d’Armor. Without going that far, an LR confirms: “She has the same handicap as Le Fur on societal issues. The Le Callennec list is common sense. And then it is the old ones who leave, including the losers, ”referring to Agnès Le Brun, the former mayor of Morlaix. And to regret that the center-right will seek an alliance with En Marche, unlike what is happening in other regions. In this chess game, it will be interesting to see how Pierre Méhaignerie is positioned on the land of Isabelle Le Callennec in Vitré, a time his protégé. Because the former Minister of Justice, a central figure in Brittany, has already spoken with… Thierry Burlot.

On the right, there are nevertheless several to bet on the Vitréenne. “Burlot, it’s not going to take and the centrists are going to get screwed as usual. If they are fifteen, it’s already not bad ”, tackles this elected member of the current right group, center and regionalists in the Region. For him, voters will know the difference between certain ideas brought by the deputy Le Fur to the National Assembly and those, more “progressive”, developed in Brittany. “There really is a chance. It’s a mouse hole, and maybe even a cat flap. The right can win. I do not see the front (RN, Editor’s note) at the usual level ”. They are nevertheless few to risk such a bet …

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