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Rbi policy, macro data, Fii flows that may influence the market


The outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations – the first scheduled review since its surprise rate hike on May 4 – will take center stage on Dalal Street this week. With the earnings season now behind us, attention should also shift to global signals and institutional flows.

The week that was

Last week, benchmark Indian stocks rose around 1.5% each, although the banking index slipped into the red after back-to-back weekly gains.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, positive domestic signals in the form of strong TPS collections, reassuring PMI data and easing FII outflows have supported the market, although high rates in the crude oil brought the rise under control.

Rbi policy, macro data, Fii flows that may influence the market

“The continued rise in crude oil prices due to the EU’s decision to partially ban Russian oil has hampered global markets. However, lack of confidence in the domestic market led to a sell-off towards the last hours of the week, driven by concerns over central bank policy… If central banks decide to tighten policy hard, the market mood may swing to the downside,” he said.

The road ahead

A breakout of key resistance territory is imminent, continuing its short-term uptrend, although there is no substantial evidence that the corrective phase is over, according to head of equity research Yesha Shah at Samco Securities.

“We recommend traders maintain a slightly bullish to cautious outlook and employ a stock-specific buy-dip strategy,” Shah said, seeing immediate resistance at 17,400.

Here are the main factors and events likely to influence Dalal Street during the week starting June 6:

GLOBAL INDICES

Date WE Europe Asia
June 6 UK car sales data China services PMI data
June 7 Commercial data Eurozone construction PMI data, UK services PMI data, Germany factory orders data Japanese Household Spending Data
June 8 Crude Oil Inventories Eurozone GDP and employment data, UK construction PMI data, Germany manufacturing data Japan GDP data
June 9 Jobs data ECB rate decision
June 10 Inflation data Inflation data in China

DOMESTIC INDICES

Macroeconomic data

The outcome of the scheduled bi-monthly RBI review is scheduled for Wednesday, June 8. It is the first review after the central bank’s surprise decision to raise the repo rate – the key interest rate at which it lends money to commercial banks – by 40 basis points on May 4.

Data on factory output – gauged by the industrial production index – is due on June 10.

IFI activity

Institutional money flows will remain on investors’ radar as foreign investors remain net sellers of Indian stocks while domestic investors continue to be net buyers.

Last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian shares worth Rs

6,654 crore and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) made net purchases of Rs 6,845 crore, according to preliminary exchange data.

Securities transaction

Company Date of departure Objective Registration Date
Gallantt Ispat June 6 Merger June 7
Apcotex Industries June 6 Final dividend Rs 3
Aurobindo Pharmacy June 6 Interim dividend Rs 4.5 June 7
Faze three June 6 Interim dividend Re 0.5 June 7
INEOS Styrolution India June 6 Interim dividend Rs 105 June 7
MM forgings June 6 Interim dividend Rs 6 June 7
NINtec Systems June 6 Bonus number 1:2 June 7
Rallies June 6 Final dividend Rs 3
Varun drinks June 6 Bonus number 1:2 June 7
Satyam Silk Mills June 6 good problem June 6
AAR trading company June 7 Merger June 7
General insurance company June 7 Interim dividend Rs 2.25 June 8
Global Pearl Industries June 7 Interim dividend Rs 5 June 8
GG Engineering June 8 Stock split from Rs 2 to Re 1 June 9
Jagsonpal Pharma June 8 AGE
Kansai Nerolac June 8 Final dividend Re 1
Asian Paintings June 9 Final dividend Rs 15.5 June 10
Asian granita June 9 Final dividend Re 0.7 June 10
AU Small Financial Bank June 9 Bonus number 1:1 June 10
Automation Craftsman June 9 Dividend Rs 3.75
electronic engineering June 9 Final dividend Re 1 June 10
electronic engineering June 9 Special dividend Re 0.4 June 10
AMC HDFC June 9 Dividend Rs 42
India Engine Parts & Accessories June 9 Interim dividend Rs 13 June 10
Mukand Engineers June 9 Merger June 10
PFCs June 9 Final dividend Re 1.25 June 10
QuessCorp June 9 Interim dividend Rs 4 June 10
Silver Touch Technology June 9 Interim dividend Re 0.5 June 10
SMC Global Securities June 9 Final dividend Re 1.2
Tata Consumer June 9 Final dividend Rs 6.05
Transcorp International June 9 Dividend Re 0.1
Volta June 9 Final dividend Rs 5.5
Welspun Corp. June 9 Dividend Rs 5 June 10
CEAT June 10 Final dividend Rs 3 June 13
LKP financing June 10 Final dividend Rs 3
LKP Titles June 10 Final dividend Re 0.3
Issuance of Sadhna June 10 Stock split from Rs 10 to Re 1 June 13
Sagarsoft (India) June 10 Dividend Rs 3
Shree Digvijay Cement June 10 Final dividend Rs 2 June 13
Tata Communications June 10 Final dividend Rs 20.7


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