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Rallies of raw materials left for dead come back to life


Focus on wood and natural gas

Cathie Wood’s recent favorite commodity chart is lumber. She and other commodity bears layered it on top of other commodities in a well-worn attempt to show that every peak will lead to a collapse.

In general, chart overlays are a bad practice if they are not strongly correlated assets over the long term. But they are a favorite of those seeking attention.

The point is, while lumber has been used as a market to foreshadow everyone else (don’t get me started on iron ore, which concerns Chinese policy), the latest trend in tree prices is in the rise. Lumber futures are back at $ 750 from a low of $ 482 in August.

The lumber futures market is extraordinarily thin, but spot prices have also moved higher, with the latest price at around $ 580 and up 4.5% from last Friday. Random Lengths pointed to upward momentum across all categories, with consumption exceeding production, while noting that buyers remained cautious. But if you heed yesterday’s Goldman Sachs call for a multi-year housing boom in the United States, there’s a lot to like.

A product at a different stage of a boom is European natural gas. To me and everyone else, the price action on October 6 felt like a thunderclap. However, TTF prices hit a low the following day, but have not fallen or hit a new low since. They are up 10% today on the forecast for colder weather and lighter wind.

Rallies of raw materials left for dead come back to life

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