Rainy Indy 500 forecast could create dilemma for Kyle Larson: Stay or go to NASCAR?

INDIANAPOLIS — Kyle Larson doesn’t worry about a lot of things. He thought going above 240 mph for the first time last week was a breeze, and he was barely stressed about qualifying for his first Indianapolis 500.

But the weather forecast for the Indy 500? It shook him, at least by Larson’s typically unflappable standards.

“It’s stressful because the weather is always unpredictable, but you don’t really know until it happens,” Larson said Thursday. “You can have backup plans for the backup plan, but you can’t really do anything or react until it’s time.”

Larson is worried about rain because, unlike the other 32 drivers in the Indy 500 field, the 31-year-old has other places to be on Sunday. His day job, the NASCAR Cup Series, has its Coca-Cola 600 marathon near Charlotte, North Carolina, later Sunday evening and represents the second half of the “Doublehead.”

Larson’s departure deadline from Indy is 4:15 p.m. ET; according to a timestamped article on X, last year’s Indy 500 ended at 4:14 p.m. ET.

But if Larson is late for the NASCAR race — or misses it altogether — he would need a waiver from NASCAR to still qualify for its playoffs this fall (and as the current points leader, Larson is l one of the favorites for the title).

According to Rule 12.3.2.1.A of the NASCAR Rules: “Unless otherwise authorized by NASCAR, drivers and team owners must start in all championship events in the current season to be eligible for the playoffs. »

The “authorized by NASCAR” is the key. NASCAR would probably give Larson a pass for missing the race, except it would set a new precedent. Previously, waivers were mainly granted in cases of injuries – but never because a driver was racing elsewhere.

While this is obviously an exceptional circumstance with some nuance, there would certainly be some uproar on social media with accusations of NASCAR favoritism toward Larson and his powerhouse NASCAR team, Hendrick Motorsports.

But the former drivers participating in the double need not fear losing their championship eligibility. In 2014, when Kurt Busch was last to run the Double, drivers only had to “attempt to qualify” for each NASCAR race. Busch, for example, called his Cup Series car the Thursday before the races; while he certainly wanted to return to Charlotte on time on Sunday, he no longer had to worry about missing the playoffs if he didn’t.

NASCAR then changed the rule before the 2015 season to stipulate that drivers must actually start every race, not just attempt to qualify. This is part of the reason Larson finds himself in a difficult situation right now.

If it rains in Indianapolis, Larson’s best-case scenario is total annihilation. He wouldn’t then do the Double on the same day, but at least he could still participate in both races.

“If it’s going to rain, I hope it rains all day,” Larson said. “This way it can be pushed back to Monday. We can arrive (NASCAR) Sunday evening, then come here (to Indianapolis) on Monday.

While the National Weather Service’s forecast Friday morning indicated the exact timing was still too far away to predict, a “very unstable atmosphere” and the arrival of a spring storm system combined to “present a distinct possibility of severe weather outbreak Sunday and Sunday evening.”

There is currently an 80 percent chance of rain for the Indy 500.

The biggest issue for Larson is scenarios that don’t involve a postponement on Monday. Indy 500 officials have said they will do everything possible to make the race happen on Sunday, mainly because a crowd of more than 330,000 people is expected that day. Over the previous 107 races, the Indy 500 has only been completely postponed three times (1915, 1986 and 1997) and partially postponed – started, then stopped and resumed on another day – twice (1967, 1973).

If the green flag is delayed and starts late, what would Larson do? It seems unlikely that he will pit and get out of the car in the middle of the biggest race in the world. But no one is definitively ruling it out.

Likewise, what would Larson do if the race started, but then was interrupted by a rain delay? Would he wait in Indianapolis, hoping to continue the 500 but knowing he would miss the NASCAR race entirely? It’s a tricky answer with ramifications on many levels.

One major factor in Larson’s favor: His NASCAR team owner, Rick Hendrick, is also the sponsor of his No. 17 Arrow McLaren IndyCar. Hendrick, who makes his living as a car dealer, owns HendrickCars.com on both of Larson’s vehicles and has invested untold sums in Larson’s Indy 500 effort.

So if Larson wanted to stay in Indy, he would likely have Hendrick’s blessing to do so.

“I don’t know anything,” Larson said. “I don’t have any answers for you guys as far as decisions and stuff. I don’t think anyone really does at this point.

“It probably has to come down to game-time decisions and playing by ear.”

GO FURTHER

For Kyle Larson’s Indy 500/NASCAR marathon, there will be only one voice in his ear

(Top photo by Kyle Larson: Grace Hollars / USA Today)