Already candidate in 2012 and 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared himself in November 2020. Five years ago, the leader of La France insoumise finished in fourth place, with 19.58% of the vote. But the ground does not appear so clear this year. Main change from the 2017 presidential election, the presence of a communist candidate. Fabien Roussel, secretary general of the PCF, who is leading his first campaign. And he seems determined to go all the way, hoping to seduce voters disappointed by La France insoumise. Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière) and Philippe Poutou (New Capitalist Party) are also on the starting line.
After multiplying the signs, Anne Hidalgo should formalize his candidacy during the month of September. The mayor of Paris could find Stéphane Le Foll on his way. The former Minister of Agriculture has announced his intention to stand for the primary provided for in the statutes of the Socialist Party. Arnaud Montebourg, too, affirmed his “determination” to carry “a candidacy for the presidential election”. An approach that he seems to be considering outside the PS.
The other unknown on the left is the identity of the candidate who will embody ecological ideas in the presidential election. A primary (which will take place from September 16 to 28) will decide the five contenders in the running : Sandrine Rousseau (EELV), Éric Piolle (EELV), Yannick Jadot (EELV), Jean-Marc Governatori (Cap ecology) and Delphine Batho (Generation ecology).
Regularly questioned about his candidacy, Emmanuel Macron believes that it is too early to answer. But everything suggests that the Head of State has every intention of being a candidate for his own succession. In his camp, no one should stand in his way. Even if the strategy of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, sometimes presented as a remedy, continues to raise questions.
Xavier Bertrand, who left Les Républicains in 2017, insists that he will not go through a primary. Reelected President of the Hauts-de-France Regional Council, he had chosen to declare himself in March 2021 to overtake its main competitors. Problem for him, he did not make the hole in the polls.
And five other right-wing candidates are now on the starting line. The president of the Ile-de-France region, Valérie Pécresse, launched on July 22, asserting that the primary is “the only democratic solution”. Michel Barnier, Brexit negotiator, came out of the woods at the end of last week, as did MP Éric Ciotti. The LR mayor of La Garenne-Colombes (Hauts-de-Seine), Philippe Juvin, also emergency head of the Georges-Pompidou hospital, and the entrepreneur Denis Payre are also candidates. These candidates will be tested in an opinion poll commissioned by LR.
In 2017, Marine Le Pen faced Emmanuel Macron in the second round. For her third attempt, the president of the National Rally is aiming for final victory. The poor performance of his party at the last regional and departmental has however weakened its position, especially since it has to face strong competition in the sovereignist camp.
The president of Debout la France, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who had made an alliance with Marine Le Pen in the second round in 2017, is once again going it alone. Former number 2 of the FN, Florian Philippot (Les Patriotes) has also announced his candidacy, on a sovereignist line advocating the exit of France from the European Union. A niche also occupied by François Asselineau (Republican Popular Union).
And it may also be necessary to reckon with a candidacy of Eric Zemmour. According to those around him, the polemicist is preparing and his entry into the campaign could take place this fall.
Many “small” candidates have expressed their intention to compete, without being sure of their determination to obtain the necessary 500 sponsorships. Among them, Jean Lassalle, who had gathered 1.2% of the vote in 2017, with the defense of rural France as a credo, or even Hélène Thouy, president of the Animalist Party, a formation which had collected 2.2% in the last elections European.