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Premier League Predictions, Odds, Betting


Another huge list of European football action is upon us and I’m here to share two best bets for the Premier League list.

While many eyeballs will be drawn to the FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley Stadium with Manchester City-Liverpool and Chelsea-Crystal Palace, football bettors still have six games to choose from in England’s top flight.

For my pair of plays, I look beyond sides, however, and choose to focus on two totals, both overs. That said, let’s dive into my two best bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate.

Best Bet #1 – Southampton/Arsenal FC Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Southampton were embarrassed 6-0 at home in their last game against Chelsea and generated only 0.5 expected goals in this match.

However, his home goalscoring record prior to this game was solid and I believe his attack will return to that form against Arsenal on Saturday. Prior to the Chelsea encounter, Saints have created at least one expected goal in six consecutive appearances and eight of the last nine. The only game in which he failed to do so came in a game where Southampton took out a man for an entire half.

Additionally, Southampton could see a slight positive attacking regression based on their home performances. In 16 matches at St. Mary’s Stadium, manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s side scored 20 goals out of an expected 21.5, according to fbref.com.

Southampton’s Kyle Walker-Peters resists challenge from Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka
Getty Images

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That said, Southampton’s defense has struggled lately. In his last five Premier League appearances, he has conceded two expected goals every 90 minutes and held just one team under an expected goal. Opponents Arsenal come to this game in great attacking form – 1.65xG/90mins in their last nine games – and have a solid all-time record against Southampton – at least 1.5xG in two consecutive games and six of last seven face to face Premier League matches.

But it’s also an Arsenal defense that struggles to defend against the pressure on the outside. In five matches on the road against unnamed top-half pressure sides Manchester City and Liverpool, coach Mikel Arteta’s side concede an expected 1.3 goals per 90 minutes and have kept just two clean sheets , one of which was unearned.

As a result, expect a top game between these teams on Saturday.

James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Leicester City
James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Leicester City
Reuters

Best Bet #2 – Newcastle United/Leicester City Both teams to score ‘Yes’ (-140)

I recognize that’s a bit of juice to lay, but I’m shocked that price isn’t north of -160.

Both teams come into this game with a BTTS percentage of 60% or better for the season and are both north of 67% for their respective venues for this game (Leicester City have a BTTS percentage of 79% away this game. season).

Although Newcastle have kept their sheets clean in two of their last three home fixtures, it has been a while since they faced a top attack at home. And in seven matches against first-half offenses this season, Newcastle have yet to keep their clean sheet and have allowed 2.27 xG/90 in those matches.

At the same time, however, Leicester’s defense didn’t hold up well against bottom-half teams, especially away from home. In seven road games against such opposition this season, the Foxes have allowed at least one xGA of seven and conceded at least one of six goals, according to fbref.com.

Given that only two teams – Manchester City and Chelsea – have held Newcastle scoreless at home this season, expect manager Eddie Howe’s side to enter the table fairly easily. Add to that that Leicester City have been held just under 1.0 xG in two of their last nine games and I expect we’ll see goals at both ends of the pitch on Sunday.

New York Post

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