Prediction Leeds United vs Manchester City

Leeds United host Premier League leaders Manchester City on Saturday as they seek revenge for their 7-0 defeat in the second leg.

Leeds have shown some improvement under new manager Jesse Marsch. As of March 5, the Peacocks are 3-2-2 (WLD) and have an expected goal differential of +0.5.

But Leeds are a candidate for negative regression at both ends of the field. In their last three matches, Marsch’s side have scored four goals out of an expected 2.5 while conceding only once out of an expected 4.9.

Visitors Manchester City have also shown solid form since the start of March. In their last six Premier League appearances, the defending champions are 4-0-2 and have scored at least 1.5 expected goals in five of the six.

Their defense also displayed strong underlying metrics, allowing only one opponent (Liverpool) to create at least one expected goal.


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Although Leeds have improved lately, I think it’s City or nothing in this game. In nine matches against the last five, City are a perfect 9-0-0 and have a +30 goal differential in those matches.

Manager Pep Guardiola’s side also kept seven clean sheets. Even though City will be playing on a short rest, I like the value you get here.

The game: Manchester City win to zero (+130)

New York Post

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