Pre-Halving Bearish Flip in Crypto Crowd Sentiment Hints Bitcoin (BTC) Price Bounce May Be Coming

“The masses are always wrong. Wisdom does everything the crowd does not do,” said American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski.

This is also true for crypto, and the cryptocurrency community is starting to be pessimistic on bitcoin (BTC) – a sign that the current BTC price sell-off may soon run out of steam.

“Historically, prices move in the opposite direction to the expectations of mass traders,” blockchain analytics platform Santiment said in a market outlook article, adding that the market could bottom out just before the reduction. half – expected in the next two days – or shortly thereafter.

Data tracked by Santiment shows that the number of “bull market” or “bull cycle” mentions on crypto social media has been declining since late March. At the same time, the number of mentions of “bear market” or “bear cycle” has steadily increased.

Santiment’s Social Trends Indicator tracks discussions on Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan to identify keywords or topics that have sparked interest.

“According to the cryptocurrency public, the #bullmarket essentially ended after #Bitcoin’s market value fell -16% since the #AllTimeHigh of $73,600 on March 14. At the same time, mentions of the #bearmarket are increasing,” Santiment said.

The number of mentions for other keywords like “buy the dip” also indicates that “hopium” – crypto slang for the hope of a rapid recovery and continued bull run – among retail investors is faded. Historically, a decline in “buy the dip” “these mentions marked the end of bearish trends.

The decreasing likelihood of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, increased geopolitical tensions and the timing of U.S. tax payments have weighed on bitcoin this month, leading to a 14% price decline.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value bottomed below $60,000 yesterday before recovering to trade near $61,200 at press time. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the performance of the top 20 digital assets by market capitalization, is down 24% this month.

The Bitcoin blockchain will implement its fourth mining reward halving on Friday or early Saturday, reducing BTC issuance per block by 50% to 3,125 BTC. Several analysts, including JPMorgan, have warned of a deeper drop in prices following the quadrennial event, although the consensus is optimistic over the long term.