POLL-Turkish plant activity increased by 6.5% in March


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Reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRIP%3DECI poll data

ISTANBUL, May 10 (Reuters)Turkey’s industrial output is expected to have risen 6.5% in March, up for a 21st consecutive month, as factory activity remained strong despite runaway inflation and a struggling local currency, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Year-on-year growth has remained positive since the easing of coronavirus measures in 2020. On a monthly basis, the index fell 2.4% in January due to power cuts and of natural gas in industrial facilities resulting from a technical failure in Iran.

The median estimate from the Reuters poll of seven institutions showed a 6.5% year-on-year growth in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index in March.

Forecasts for the index, considered a preliminary indicator of economic growth, ranged between 2.5% and 12.5%.

Economists expect the pace of index growth to slow over the next few months and approach a neutral level towards the summer. A potential drop in external demand or supply chain disruption due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could also impact industrial production after February.

In April 2020, production fell by more than 30% in the face of the first wave of coronavirus. It has since seen a strong recovery as subsequent measures largely bypassed the manufacturing sector and most of the remaining restrictions were lifted in July last year.

Turkey’s economy grew 11% last year, up sharply from a year earlier, but a sharp selloff in the lira in December upended business and household budgets and pushed inflation up via import prices.

The currency crisis at the end of 2021 and the resulting jump to 70% inflation, as well as the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are expected to hamper growth in 2022.

The government and the central bank expect growth of around 7% in the first quarter of 2022.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce March industrial production figures at 07:00 GMT on May 13.

(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen editing by Daren Butler)

((ali.kucukgocmen@thomsonreuters.com, @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging: ali.kucukgocmen.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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