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Reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRIP%3DECI poll data
ISTANBUL, March 8 (Reuters) – Turkey’s industrial production is expected to have grown 9.7% year on year in January, up for a 19th consecutive month, although activity is expected to slow from the previous month due to disruptions in some public services, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday.
On a month-to-month basis, factory output is expected to have contracted slightly due to power and natural gas cuts at industrial facilities due to a technical failure in Iran.
youhowever, ar growth over the year remained positive since coronavirus measures were eased in 2020. The median estimate from the Reuters poll of seven institutions showed a 9.7% growth in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index in January.
Forecasts varied between 7.0% and 12.1%.
Enver Erkan, chief economist at Tera Yatirim, said natural gas and electricity cuts in late January may have caused industrial production to contract or slow.
He added that a potential input supply problem due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising production costs could slow things down further.
“If there is a reduction in external demand, it could impact production through exports. If there is a disruption in the supply chain due to the war after February, it could have an impact on industrial production with both price increases and a lack of goods on the market,” he added. noted.
Erkan added that he expects the pace of index growth to slow to single digits from March and approach neutrality towards the summer.
In April 2020, production fell by more than 31% in the face of the first wave of coronavirus. It has since seen a strong recovery as subsequent measures largely bypassed the manufacturing sector and most of the remaining restrictions were lifted in July last year.
Turkey’s economy grew by 11% last year, up sharply from the previous year, but a volatile lira selloff in December upset corporate and household budgets and pushed up inflation via import prices.
The currency crisis at the end of 2021 and the resulting jump to 54% inflation, as well as the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are expected to hamper growth in 2022.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce January industrial production figures at 07:00 GMT on March 11.
(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
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