POLL-China’s October exports cool further as global demand weakens


Repeats ahead of trade data release later Monday

Reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=CNEXP%3DECI exports poll data

Reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=CNIMP%3DECI imports poll data

Reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=CNTRD%3DECI trade balance data

Trade data expected on Monday, November 7

BEIJING, November 4 (Reuters)China’s export growth likely slowed further in October as global demand continued to weaken, while imports remained sluggish amid weakening domestic growth, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Exports likely rose 4.3% last month from a year earlier, according to median forecasts from 20 economists in the survey, slowing from a pace of 5.7% in September. It would mark the slowest growth since April, when Shanghai COVID lockdowns rocked the world’s second-largest economy.

“The lukewarm outlook for global supply chains does not bode well for Chinese exports,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ.

“As the US and European economies slow, demand for electronic components could remain sluggish next year,” he added.

Trade data will be released on Monday.

China’s booming exports beat expectations in the first half of 2022 – and was one of the few bright spots in its struggling economy – but rising global interest rates, soaring inflation and disruptions from the Russian-Ukrainian war have combined to dampen global demand.

an official investigation showed that factory activity unexpectedly declined in October, weighed by a drop in export orders and strict COVID-19 restrictions. Orders are falling despite a further weakening of the yuan which should make Chinese products more competitive heading into the key year-end buying season.CNY/

High-frequency data points to a further slowdown in the fourth quarter, with container throughput at major ports falling 9% in the first 10 days of October, Barclays economists said in a note.

“In addition to slowing global demand amid a likely global recession, we note that export orders normally sent to China are being diverted to other emerging market economies.”

Combined with a high basis of comparison compared to last year, Barclays predicts that Chinese exports could fall by 2-5% in 2023.

Imports, meanwhile, are expected to remain extremely weak as widespread COVID-19 containment measures weigh on domestic consumption.

Imports are forecast to have risen only 0.1% from a year earlier, compared to a gain of 0.3% in September.

Goldman Sachs analysts said lower oil prices will also dampen overall import growth.

South Korea exports, a leading indicator of Chinese imports, suffered its worst fall in 26 months in October. Exports to China, its main market, fell 15.7%.

The weak trade forecast implied that China’s trade surplus would increase to $95.95 billion from $84.74 billion in September.

Chinese cases of COVID-19 reached its highest in two and a half months on Thursday, the impact of the curbs continuing to reverberate. Goldman Sachs says cities with high- or medium-risk neighborhoods accounted for about 52% of national GDP on Friday.

(Poll compiled by Anant Chandak; Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)

((Ellen.Zhang@thomsonreuters.com;))

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