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PM Update: Strong to severe storms possible tonight and on Memorial Day

Please see the more detailed two-part severe weather briefing at the bottom of this report. Storms are possible this evening, particularly around the Chesapeake Bay and secondarily perhaps closer to high ground. Later tonight, we could see a series of stronger storms – and some could be severe.

Memorial Day presents the highest weather threat, and storms can be most widespread between about noon and 9 p.m. Wind damage, large hail, a few tornadoes and flooding showers are possible.

This moist and unstable air mass persists until the originally strong cold front dissipates Monday evening.

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Until tonight : The highest risks (around 50%) of severe storms may occur late in the evening and overnight. Otherwise the weather is generally cloudy. Low temperatures will drop near uncomfortable dew points in the mid 60s, down to around 70°. With this potential for 100% relative humidity, we could see patchy fog as sunrise approaches.

See the Washington Post current weather.

Remembrance Day (Monday): Lots of filtered sun and clouds are possible. Morning showers and storms are possible, but heavy storms with prolonged rain do not appear very likely. Most eyes are on the afternoon and evening for organized, widespread and potentially destructive storms.

South-southwest wind gusts can reach around 25 mph, even outside of storms, providing some relief from sticky temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Around midnight, most showers, storms and breezes should be over with the passage of the energetic cold front. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 60s to mid 60s at sunrise.

See Molly Robey’s forecast through midweek. Come chat tomorrow on Youtube, Facebook, Instagram And X! Our 20 minutes Live Bank Holiday Monday Sunset Q&A will start at 8:25 p.m.

Two-part briefing: Storms tonight and tomorrow

First part, this evening: Severe storms like last night’s are possible, perhaps strongest after 10 p.m.

We’ll have to look toward the Ohio Valley this evening as a potential complex of storms moves toward the Appalachians well ahead of tomorrow evening’s cold front. This complex is likely to weaken as it approaches our area, but it is generally best to remain a little cautious given the atmospheric pattern. Here is a potential forecast of what the radar will look like between 8:00 p.m. Sunday and 6:00 a.m. Monday:

Storms could move through central Virginia and the Interstate 64 corridor late tonight. The National Weather Service has some limits to its concerns, however, with the overall severe threat appearing “marginal at best due to modest instability and shear.”

Part 2, tomorrow: Widespread storms between around noon and 9 p.m. can be very organized and powerful.

According to our severe storm expert, Jeff Halverson: “A combination of an approaching cold front, disturbances aloft, an unstable atmosphere and strong winds aloft will trigger numerous thunderstorms” – perhaps in the form of waves of strong storm cell lines or cells. “Some storms may be locally severe and require a severe thunderstorm watch. »

Many threats are on the table, but devastating wind gusts of at least 58 mph pose the primary threat. Lightning, hail and a few tornadoes are also possible. Torrential downpours can be brief, thanks to the rapid movement of storms, limiting the risk of flooding. A simulated radar for tomorrow appears active from noon to 9 p.m.:

Halverson said all the ingredients could be there for thunderstorms to form over our area. Clouds are an unknown variable: more clouds tomorrow could mean fewer thunderstorms. However, high levels of potential energy from convection and wind shear – changing winds at different heights in the atmosphere – can allow large thunderstorm “supercells” to develop, as well as a tornado or two. .

Stay tuned. Our next severe weather update is currently expected tomorrow morning as we assess the latest data on these potentially dangerous weather conditions. If you go outside during the holidays tomorrow, pay attention to the weather! We’ll discuss the storms and review the weather for the shortened work week in tomorrow’s paper. Live Bank Holiday Monday Sunset Q&A on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and X! Our 20-minute discussion will begin at 8:25 p.m.

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With a penchant for words, jack began writing at an early age. As editor-in-chief of his high school newspaper, he honed his skills telling impactful stories. Smith went on to study journalism at Columbia University, where he graduated top of his class. After interning at the New York Times, jack landed a role as a news writer. Over the past decade, he has covered major events like presidential elections and natural disasters. His ability to craft compelling narratives that capture the human experience has earned him acclaim. Though writing is his passion, jack also enjoys hiking, cooking and reading historical fiction in his free time. With an eye for detail and knack for storytelling, he continues making his mark at the forefront of journalism.
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