Saturday evening update September 23
As expected, 12 hours after arriving on land, Ophélie lost a lot of energy and wind. The National Hurricane Center has downgraded this situation to a tropical depression. Top winds are 35 mph.
All storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.
I understand that this was disappointing for some, while others felt the full force of the wind and waves. Most of the rain was pushed further west, inland. So far, precipitation in central Maryland is generally between 1/2 inch and just over 1 inch.
I tried to mention in all posts that this would behave more like a strong Nor’easter. But I can see the name of the storm and all the tracking data can lead to a broader perception.
The center of the storm still has a cluster of rain and spiral bands that we will follow overnight. This storm is still expected to move north and pass through Maryland on Sunday.
Residual energy could still push waters higher in the bay tonight and early Sunday, but the winds left over from this storm will ease.
In this article we see the possibility of rain or dryness for all local games (Ravens, Commanders and Nationals).
Local wind gusts at 9 p.m.
Gusty winds remain off the ocean, but the strongest winds appear to blow along the Chesapeake Bay.
Interactive Live Radar Widget
Surface weather Saturday evening
Satellite loop
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHÉLIA
Update from the National Hurricane Center at 8 p.m.
- LOCATION…37.0N 77.6W
- APPROXIMATELY 40 MI…60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
- APPROXIMATELY 165 MI…265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
- CURRENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
Tropical Storm Warning AND NHC Forecast Map
The central depression should still cross the Chesapeake Bay south of Baltimore… It has always been expected in a degraded form and the winds will be much lighter on Sunday.
Entertainment forecast, then we’ll look at the key deadlines on Sunday.
GFS model from Sunday evening to Tuesday evening
Sunday afternoon
The rest of the depression will have more rain to the north. Showers could persist around Baltimore, and more in Pennsylvania.
Winds around the low will be light, and a cool breeze will persist with the rain. Take a closer look below.
Tuesday evening
The residual low could persist off the coast for a few days. This will maintain an east wind over the land. This may also contain clouds and cooler temperatures.
Local forecast maps
Radar simulation from Saturday evening to Sunday evening
Wind forecast
Radar simulation from Saturday evening to Sunday evening
Sunday cards
Morning
1:00 p.m. game time
There is a better chance for Washington to dry out as lingering showers will draw north to Baltimore.
This looks good for the Commanders, Nationals and Ravens.
Wind forecast
Below the center of the depression, winds will be very light. There will be a cool breeze to the north in Pennsylvania where rain will continue to fall.
Temperatures
It will be a cool fall day. Temperatures will reach the 60s at baseball and football stadiums.
4:00 p.m.
What’s left of the rain could still fall in Pennsylvania as it moves north.
High tide tables
Three key points of interest. High tide overnight and early Sunday is when we can see the highest water.
Additional tables for Maryland can be generated here: Saltwater tides
Baltimore: Fort McHenry
Annapolis
Ocean City Bay
WINDY WIDGET
New reports:
El Niño Advisory: First Look at NOAA’s Winter Expectations
Winter outlook for 2024 based on two farmers’ almanacs
Return to cold and snow
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Aurora photos from Maryland, Delaware and Virginia
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REPRESENT MY MESSAGE ON DYSLEXIA
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors and other occasional issues. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer problems that I might miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my degree in Meteorology and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and that I should not let this be a crutch for the future. It was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice and makes the situation worse. I can also make mistakes in the forecasts. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Wordy” stuff can get sticky. No editor can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send in a newsworthy calendar. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when available. This could be AFTER reading this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you read really comes from me… It’s part of my charm.
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