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OPEC’s monthly report downgraded its estimate of global oil consumption this year (but there is a but)


The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was released on Wednesday.

Summary of points via a Platts report, the bold is mine:

  • Unless there is a substantial increase in OPEC crude production in the coming months, the the oil market will tighten considerably … citing the lingering impacts of Hurricane Ida on US oil production, as well as field maintenance and blackouts in Kazakhstan and Canada.
  • OPEC lowered its estimate of oil supplies from outside the bloc in 2021 of 210,000 b / d compared to its previous forecast of 63.64 million b / d.
  • Global demand for oil has declined … Global oil demand is expected to increase from 5.8 million b / d to 96.60 million b / d in 2021, revised down from the 5.96 million b / d growth observed last month
  • As a result, OPEC’s crude production call for 2021 has been revised to 27.80 million b / d, of which 29.36 million b / d in the fourth quarter. That’s significantly higher than OPEC’s production of 27.33 million barrels per day in September, according to secondary sources used by the organization to track production.
  • So far, however, OPEC has not indicated that it plans to pump until the fourth quarter call on its crude.
  • The group will then meet on November 4 to decide on December production levels.

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