NOAA Forecasts Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season, Releases Storm Names

For the seventh consecutive year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2022.

NOAA’s 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicts 14 to 21 named storms, which means winds of 39 mph or more, with 14 being the average.

“NOAA forecasts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, which would make this year the seventh consecutive above-normal season,” said NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad. . “Specifically, there is a 65% chance of an above-par season, a 25% chance of a near-par season and only a 10% chance of a below-par season.”

It includes six to 10 hurricanes, which means winds of 74 mph or more (the average is seven) and three to six major, category 3/4/5 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more (the average is of three).

NOAA has also released storm names for the upcoming hurricane season as needed.

They are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter

“We just had two extremely active hurricane seasons, marking the first time that two consecutive hurricane seasons have depleted the list of 21 store names,” Dr. Spinrad said. “If you go back two years to the 2020 hurricane season, breaking records across the board and it’s the most active season on record with 30 named storms. The 2021 hurricane season, which is the third most active year on record in terms of storm names, brought us 21 named storms with impacts ranging from Appalachia to New England, causing over $78 billion in damage. Hurricane Ida, of course, had a huge impact right here in New York, hundreds of miles north of where it made landfall.”

Experts say reasons for the active hurricane season include:
–Ongoing La Nina conditions that will persist through the summer and early fall.
–Atlantic sea surface temperature warmer than normal.
–Weaker Atlantic tropical trade winds
–An enhanced African monsoon, which powers the strongest and longest hurricanes.

“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and at risk from the remnants of a storm system,” the administrator said. FEMA, Deanne Criswell. “It’s important that everyone understand their risk and take proactive steps to prepare now by visiting and for preparedness guidance, and downloading the FEMA app to ensure you receive alerts. emergency in real time.”

How climate affects hurricanes is still an area of ​​study for NOAA scientists. In recent years, storms have intensified rapidly before making landfall, fueled by above-normal sea surface temperatures.

In recent decades, due to the growth of urban settings, there have been more extremes like record flooding in areas never seen before.

The NOAA outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landing forecast.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

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