The Play-In tournament is here for the NBA, with two games kicking off tonight. While both contests should be fun to watch, only one intrigued me as a three-point prop bettor.
We’ll see if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love can sustain their three-point barrage in the Cavs-Nets, but our attention turns to the Clippers-Timberwolves.
Minnesota drops all three
It’s great to see new teams in the playoff mix, and the Timberwolves certainly embody that. However, they have a defensive vulnerability to long-range shots, which works to our advantage tonight.
During the season, Minnesota allows the sixth-most threes per game, at 13.1. Wolves’ percentage awarded to opponents is also up slightly, from 34.7% in two weeks to 35% now. It’s of course a tiny difference, but it shows that the teams have been doing a bit more lately against them.
One or two more will probably be the difference we need for our favorite Clippers target.
Paul George is back
In case you missed it, Paul George was out of the Los Angeles rotation from Dec. 22 to March 29, just over three months.
He’s now settled and back, adjusting for five games before the playoffs start.
That’s enough time to feel confident that his role in that offense has returned, with said role being a high-volume goalscorer.
Over the last five games, George has averaged 8.0 three-point attempts per game, three times for nine attempts.
Not only is he shooting, but he’s also racked up the marks in that span, going five or more from deep in three of five.
That’s enough for me, and it’s the option I roll with to capitalize on Minnesota’s defensive issues.
I place a half unit on each of the items below, but by all means roll with just its standard line.
- 4+ three (+100 DraftKings)
- 5+ three (+230 FanDuel)