The countries are preparing to be very differently affected by the shock of the Russian-Ukrainian war, depending in particular on their degree of remoteness, dependence, post-pandemic robustness. But none will escape the acceleration of inflation, under the influence of the very strong increase in commodity prices and new disruptions in supply chains. If in several countries, it is already dangerously high, in Morocco, inflation would accelerate this year to only 3.1% to drop to 2.1% in 2023, according to a new study published by the Crédit Agricole France group.
The Russo-Ukrainian war was introduced in a new economic upheaval. Depending in particular on their degree of remoteness, dependence, post-pandemic robustness, countries are preparing to be very differently affected by this new shock. But none will escape the acceleration of inflation, under the influence of the very sharp increase in commodity prices, new disruptions in supply chains and the risk of shortages. This is what emerges from a new study published by the Crédit Agricole France group. The latter now forecasts average inflation of 6.7% worldwide and 9% in Africa and the Middle East in 2022. In Morocco, inflation should accelerate this year, after 1.4% in 2021, but at a level much lower, at 3.1%. In 2023, it should drop to 2.1%. It is systematically this scenario which prompted the Board of Bank Al-Maghrib, last March, to maintain the key rate.
Indeed, according to the Wali of the Central Bank, the expected return of inflation to moderate levels in 2023 (at 1.9%, after 4.7% in 2022) was one of the major data that favored the maintenance of the key rate at 1.50%. According to the Crédit Agricole France study, Morocco will be among the least inflationary countries in 2022 and 2023, compared to an average of 6.2% and 3.4% forecast for industrialized countries and 7.2% and 4 .4% for emerging economies, during the same period. At the regional level, inflation in Morocco should be the lowest in North Africa this year and next year, compared to Egypt (10.1% in 2022 and 8.2% in 2023) Algeria ( 9.1% then 7.3%) or even Tunisia (8.1% and 5.8%). For the French banking group, the standard impact of a one point rise in inflation translates into a loss of half a point of GDP growth. The main transmission channel is the decline in household purchasing power.
For Morocco, the group forecasts a 3.9% increase in GDP. It is therefore more optimistic than the scenario established last March by Bank Al-Maghrib. The central table of the bank, in fact, on a sluggish growth of 0.7%, suffering from particularly repressed climatic conditions, the repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine on the world economy and the increase in the prices of energy and food products. Reminders there too that used BAM will also be revised. Because, in terms of the agricultural campaign, they did not take into account the last rains of March-April and spring crops. In 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.7%, according to estimates by economists at Crédit Agricole France. According to them, the Russo-Ukrainian war introduced a major rupture overall, the immediate effects of which spread through three main channels: confidence by constituting a source of concern, the supply rekindling proven or anticipated shortages, the demand for stimulating inflation.
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